Q&A of the Day – Did DeSantis’ Florida Map Make a Difference?
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Today’s Entry: Hey Brian, here’s something for your Q&A. I heard somewhere that the DeSantis redistricting map may not have made a difference in the final results. Can you research this?
Bottom Line: Yes, I can. And yes, there’s something to what you’ve heard. If there is any indication that this year’s election results turned out far better than even DeSantis originally had imagined, it’s within this story. The reason this topic has suddenly cropped up once again, after the deep political fight earlier this year over Florida’s political map, is due to the United States Supreme Court taking up a redistricting case from North Carolina this week. So, let's start there. As you may recall, the Florida Legislature originally advanced a map, mandated by Florida’s population growth as recorded in the 2020 Census, which was rejected by Governor DeSantis. DeSantis then called a special session which resulted in a new map being advanced that he’d essentially drawn himself. That map was legally challenged but ultimately upheld by the Florida Supreme Court. That said, there are still outstanding legal challenges to it at the federal level and there are potential implications looming from what happens with the North Carolina case currently being considered.
The North Carolina case before the Supremes isn’t about the actual map but the process by which it was ratified for this year’s elections. As was the case in Florida, there were legal challenges to the North Carolina map which were eventually settled in the state ‘s legal system. The legal challenge is whether the state court has a constitutional right to determine the legitimacy of maps for federal races, or whether federal courts alone should be the arbiter of the federal maps. The way the United States Supreme Court rules could have the potential to impact Florida’s current map and future redistricting considerations if it were to rule that federal courts alone have jurisdiction over federal races. Regardless, the federal legal challenges to Florida’s map will continue to play out going forward. So now to address what you specifically asked about. Did DeSantis’ map make a difference?
Data analytics and consulting firm MCI Maps just completed an analysis of the impact of Florida’s newly drawn DeSantis map in comparison to the one originally drawn by the state legislature. The narrative which had been advanced is that DeSantis’ map helped Republicans flip four Congressional seats this cycle – which given the tighter than expected GOP majority in the House - proved huge. Yes, the four flips were and are huge in the context of House control. Yes, DeSantis appears to have had a huge impact on these outcomes. No, DeSantis’ map wasn’t likely a factor at all. The MCI Map analysis shows a conclusion which suggests Florida’s congressional elections would have likely resulted in the same partisan splits even if the original map adopted by the Legislature had been in force for this election cycle. While it’s a slightly inexact science, because ultimately some voters who voted in one congressional race would have had different candidates to choose between had the Legislature’s map been used, however if the partisan voting splits remained similar, the results would have resulted in the same number of seats being won by Republicans. In MCI’s findings there would have been two races which would likely have had different outcomes, however with the same partisan split.
Under the Legislature’s map, Tallahassee Democrat Al Lawson would have retained his congressional seat. Of all the most controversial aspects of the DeSantis map, it was his minority seat which was and is subject to the majority of scrutiny. However, the Legislature’s map would likely have led to Tampa Democrat Kathy Castor losing her seat, to her Republican challenger. Under DeSantis’ map she retained her seat. While many were considering the potential for Miami-Dade to flip this cycle, there was essentially no conversation about Hillsborough, Pinellas and most certainly Palm Beach County flipping as well. Because of the Tampa metro turning red this cycle, the DeSantis map likely had no effect other than trading Democrat Al Lawson for Kathy Castor. Now that’s not to say it couldn't play a larger role in future cycles should this election prove to be a high-water mark for Republicans in Florida. But for this cycle it didn’t.