House Insanity & The Battle over the Soul of the GOP – Top 3 Takeaways – January 5th, 2023
- The definition of insanity. We’re all familiar with this one, right? Doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. Technically the definition is this: The meaning of INSANITY is a severely disordered state of mind usually occurring as a specific disorder. Still, the point remains. And while I don’t think Kevin McCarthy is actually insane, I do think there’s a case that can be made that his actions have been. In talking with our White House Correspondent Jon Decker (offline) during the three votes on Tuesday, the one point we kept coming back to is how McCarthy could have expected anything different to play out. The writing was on the wall that he didn’t have the votes to become Speaker before the first vote had been taken. But still, heading into the first vote, I could understand how he might have decided it was worth the effort to play a game of chicken to see if the holdouts were really serious when it came down to brass tax voting. Well, after the first vote that was abundantly clear. So, the strategy heading into the second vote was that somehow it would be magically different if only Jim Jordan were the one making the pitch for him on the floor in advance? Well, ok, maybe just maybe, an impassioned plea from Jordan for McCarthy would be enough to swing a handful of voters over his way. So, what did the holdouts decide to do? They decided to vote for him for House Speaker. And by the third vote on Tuesday? I mean seriously, in what world did Kevin McCarthy think the vote would somehow have been different? Well, actually that’s when the vote was different. Southwest Florida Representative Byron Donalds, who’d supported McCarthy in the first two rounds peeled off as well with one of the most sensible statements of the day. He flipped because “McCarthy doesn’t have the votes”. And that was all only what had happened on Tuesday. Yesterday the day started differently. Former President Donald Trump came out, and instead of referring to McCarthy as a three-time loser, he pledged his support to him. So maybe, just maybe, these “Never Kevin” Republicans in the House could be swayed by Trump’s official backing. Nope. Not one, nor the 20th Donalds. In fact, Donalds, on the back of the previous day’s logic, became the centerpiece of those opposition votes. And that took us to the 5th failed vote yesterday. Honestly, what in the world was Kevin McCarthy thinking? Jim Jordan nor Donald Trump could sway a single additional vote his way. How in his right mind would the fifth vote have been any different? What we’ve witnessed is the definition of insanity playing out with the House leader of the Republican party. But what it also has shown us is...
- The new battle over the soul of the GOP. Over the past decade I’d used this example to illustrate the evolution of the Republican party. Starting in 2009 there was a revolt to the Republican establishment brought about by the Tea Party. The Tea Party overwhelmingly won that battle in the 2010 midterm election cycle. However, by 2012, the establishment successfully fought back nominating Mitt Romney for President in the process. And that back-and-forth tussle continued until Donald Trump arrived on the scene. He smashed the whole darn thing and remade the party in his image. But then 2020 happened, January 6th followed, and deep soul searching began once again. We know what we just witnessed with Trump wielding outsized influence in many primary elections but with many of his candidates faring poorly in what were perceived to be winnable elections. All the while DeSantis has continued to do what DeSantis does. And that includes staying out of the fray even when poked as being Ron DeSanctimonious by Trump. I don’t want to overstate what did and didn’t happen yesterday when Trump came out pledging his support to McCarthy and still, what many have called Trump Republicans, ignored him. But it is relevant in the construct of this greater conversation. And with the power struggle we’re currently seeing, and with the dearth of conversative leadership of significance in Washington, I can’t help but wonder what Trump is thinking. And what he might be willing to do. As in potentially forming a third party. I’m not rooting for that to happen, but I also view it as a possibility if Congressional Republicans keep failing and Ron keeps rising. There is no doubt a battle over the soul of the GOP and we’re witnessing it very publicly play out right now. I don’t know how this story ends. But I can’t imagine it would be well for McCarthy whose ego seems to have gotten the best of him. Either that or...
- It’s a game of attrition. Kevin McCarthy is a lot of things but he’s not a moron. There’s one more potential angle that he could have been attempting to play from the beginning. Attrition. A simple majority of voting members is needed to become House Speaker. Maybe if he were to play the long game some members would decide to go home, lowering the threshold of votes needed to obtain a simple majority. Maybe some Democrats would grow tired of the voting games and/or fear who might become speaker if not McCarthy and decide to vote “present” instead, likewise lowering the threshold of votes needed for a simple majority. Well, a rock-solid source told me there’s a near zero chance of those possibilities as Democrats from on high have promised to primary any voting member who leaves or votes “present” in an effort to help McCarthy. So yeah, even that angle appears to be a losing one for him. On the bright side, with Congress still not having been sworn in, they’re not able to spend even more of your great grandchildren’s money.