Q&A of the Day – Who Stands to Benefit Most from Universal School Choice in Florida
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio The “universal school choice bill” doesn’t do poor and even lower middle class people any good, they still need to come up with more than they can afford to pay to get them into a private school. Another win for the haves.
Bottom Line: On Friday Florida’s House of Representatives passed HB 1 or what’s known as the Universal School Choice bill mostly along party lines (83-27) with seven Democrats choosing to break with their party, opting not to vote against it. With the senate companion having cleared all committees, we’re only a full senate vote away from absolute school choice going to Governor DeSantis’ desk to sign. There are still a couple of potential flies in the ointment, however. While a vote in the Florida senate could come as early as this week, perhaps even as early as today, it’s yet to be scheduled. And Governor DeSantis himself has raised concerns over cost as I once again addressed in Thursday’s Q&A. As I illustrated in that story...
A key development in the affordability conversation took place on Tuesday as Florida’s state economists, which determine how much revenue is available for consideration in the upcoming state budget under Florida’s balanced budget amendment, changed their forecast. Due to Florida’s unprecedented economic boom over the past year, the economists added over $7 billion in additional revenue to be allocated by the state legislature. That included an additional $4.3 billion for the fiscal year we’re in, which ends June 30th and its $2.8 billion more for allocation during the upcoming 2023-2024 fiscal year which starts in July – which incidentally is when Florida’s Universal School Choice Plan would go into effect if signed into law. Remember, the added cost for the upcoming school year to do this is $2.5 billion. The increase we just received for next year is already larger than that entire nugget. In other words, if the legislature wanted to, they could literally pass DeSantis’ budget as presented, with Universal School Choice added into the mix. There is no longer any question as to whether Florida can afford to do it. The question is if our elected officials will choose to.
The $2.5 billion mentioned is the high end of the range for the potential cost increase based upon my analysis in reviewing many of estimates that have rolled in (the range in potential cost increases is anywhere from just over $200 million up to $4 billion). But the point does remain that just because we can increase spending doesn’t mean we should. Enter into that conversation today’s tweet about the plan. The argument advanced is that only the “have’s” as it’s put would benefit because those who lack means still wouldn’t be able to afford school choice options and those who already can afford private schools would be reimbursed for some of the cost. Let’s get to it.
The most recent analysis of the most likely sum available to parents per student for the upcoming school year would be a net $8,216. That’s the total net sum per pupil the state of Florida is spending for students. That would happen through a combination of a stipend and transportation reimbursement. So, is the critical listener right about that still not being enough to create real choice for families perhaps most in need of choice? On the surface, it may seem to be yes. The average private school tuition cost in Florida is currently $9,789. Without diving in any deeper that would create a $1,500 or so gap. And this is what has become a talking point for those opposed. But what that talking point lacks is intellectual honesty and any consideration for pragmatism. I’ll explain.
First, the average is just that. The cost for private school presents a huge range. The most expensive private school in Florida is currently The Vanguard School in Lake Whales with a tuition cost of $50,500 per pupil per year. Sounds huge, is huge but then consider the lowest cost private school in the state. That happens to be Tampa’s Hope Christian School which checks in with a cost of only $1,500 per pupil per year! Here’s the fact of the matter.
- There are currently 304 private schools in Florida in which tuition cost would be completely covered by HB1.
- 56% of Florida’s existing private schools have tuition rates which are lower than what parents would be provided under HB1
That’s right, most private schools would be options for parents and in fact could represent huge cost savings for the state in the process over traditional public schools. What more, should HB1 become law, it’s reasonable to expect more schools which adjust tuition rates to account for the state law in addition to new school options presenting themselves creating additional competition within the education establishment as well. The narrative that those of means stand to be the only beneficiaries from Florida’s school choice legislation couldn’t be further from the truth. And as I mentioned recently (this issue) is a matter of principle. Why should those who already pay the most in taxes receive the least in services for their money? Those who pay the most in taxes should have the same access to the funds used to pay for education as any other parent. The second is who becomes the arbiter of who is “high income” and who determines which family can afford options outside of the district drawn public school option? That’s a slippery slope and it’s one we have no context for in Florida given that we don’t have a state income tax and thus don’t use a progressive tax structure. As it stands, there are currently only 14% of K-12 students in Florida attending private schools. This means the legislation would provide additional educational choice to 86% of parents and students in the state of Florida. As always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. These are the facts.