David’s Bridal, Bed Bath, Family Formation & Politics – Top 3 Takeaways – April 24th, 2023
- Family formation. Or the lack thereof as the case happens to be. Within the past week we’ve had two staples of modern American society enter bankruptcy with a good chance both may soon cease to exist. Last week it was the prolific wedding dress manufacturer and retailer David’s Bridal – which accounts for 25% of all wedding gowns sold in the United States. When the most prolific wedding dress company in the world goes bankrupt during peak wedding planning season you know something’s up. And Sunday, the second shoe dropped as long struggling retailer Bed, Bath and Beyond entered BK and is likely to go bye, bye. These two going down in short succession isn’t just a coincidence. And before talking about the bigger picture with what’s going on in society contributing to these failures – a couple of quick notes for any current or would-be customers. David’s Bridal has said they will be able to fulfil all preexisting orders while in bankruptcy as they’re seeking a buyer – though it would be a good idea to look for dresses elsewhere going forward in case the company liquidates. As for Bed, Bath and Beyond, all physical retail locations are ceasing operations and only digital business will be conducted. There’s a good chance the company liquidates during bankruptcy so be careful about making any new purchases because if they can’t fulfil your order, you may not have recourse. Anyway, with those notes out of the way, the story beyond these two company specific stories is one of family formation – or more accurately the lack thereof. Pre-pandemic the average annual number of new marriages were 2.2 million. Unsurprisingly, at the onset of the pandemic in 2020, marriages plummeted with only 1.7 million couples tying the knot that year. But the severely depressed rate of new family formation didn’t end when the masks came off. Last year only 1.9 million couples were married and the pace thus far this year isn’t any better. What we’re seeing are 14% fewer marriages, meaning 14% fewer new families being traditionally formed, 14% fewer wedding dresses and likely far fewer homes for expected new families being furnished.
- That’s a huge drop in a short time for a critical institution in our society with significant long-term implications well beyond the retailers on the frontlines of losing sales. Consider this from the 2020 election... President Trump won married men by 14% in the 2020 election and married women by 4%. Yes, that’s right – despite the narrative that suburban women raising families loathed the bad Orangeman, that simply wasn’t true this side of the nasty women who consume The View. Conversely, Trump was waxed by single voters by double-digits which was the difference in the election. And therein lies the additional potential political implications going forward should the three-year trend of significantly declining new family formations continue. It’s easy to be politically ignorant and idealistic when you’re not accountable to anyone but yourself. It’s much less easy to be so foolish when you’re raising a family. Every generation in American history has become more conservative in their voting patterns overtime with traditional family formation, and the commonsense and wisdom that comes with age and experience. The question now becomes...are the people not marrying those which would have turned out to be leftists as older adults anyway, or is there something more to this story? Time will tell...but speaking of something telling...
- Don’t buy into the hype or faux polls. Just as I illustrated Trump having outright won married women three years ago, in contrast to all narratives, many current conversations, driven by polls are likely to prove wrong. I’m reminded of a series of 2016 of speeches I delivered across Palm Beach County in which I said, prior to the Republican primary process having played out, that there was a 92% chance whoever would win the Republican primary would win the election. This surprised many because most polls showed huge differences with different candidates with seemingly only one or two candidates polling close to Hillary Clinton in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. Throughout the GOP primary process, the most common question I received was who could win? What I always said was any of them – so vote for the candidate you most believe in – not who you think, largely based polling, could win. On that note, as the primary process begins to heat up, two notes. Whoever wins the GOP nomination will be tarred and feathered and beaten up by the left and their allies in news media. Don’t be fooled – whomever the candidate will be given the Trump treatment. And speaking of Trump, something about 2020 that’s seemingly never discussed but is important to note, the reason above all others he lost is this immovable factoid. Never once has a president won reelection in a year in which the US economy entered recession. Trump lost because of COVID – period. Elections with incumbent presidents are always primarily a referendum on the incumbent. Provided Biden is the candidate on the left – it will mostly be about him regardless of who emerges from the Republican primary.