What History Suggests About President Biden’s Re-Election Bid
Bottom Line: Today President Biden announced his intention to run for re-election in 2024. It comes as polls continue to show most Americans, including majorities of Democrats, preferring that he didn’t. While most of the focus has been on the Republican process thus far, and will likely remain that way, unless heavy-weight Democrat challengers decide to jump in as well, history suggests the eventual challenger may well prove to be the favorite in the presidential race. Historically the incumbency advantage in presidential elections is significant. Most incumbents running for reelection win. However, recent history hasn’t quite been as kind to incumbent presidents. Of the seven presidents preceding Biden, three – Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and Donald Trump failed to win their re-election bids. This suggests the historical presidential incumbency advantage may not mean as much as it once did. That said, there’s also one commonality behind the failed Carter, Bush and Trump reelection bids. A recession.
A president has never been re-elected if the country has entered a recession during a presidential election cycle. The 1980 – inflation fueled recession served as the chief catalyst for Reagan’s overwhelming win. The 1991 Gulf War recession spurred by high energy prices brought about by the Iraq invasion of Kuwait quickly replaced the high approval H.W. Bush saw after the impressive success of Operation Desert Storm. That paved a path for Bill Clinton which was made wider by Ross Perot’s bid to derail Bush. And then there was the 2020 pandemic induced recession which crippled what had been a record setting economy immediately preceding it providing a two-pronged benefit for Joe Biden as he wasn’t made to traditionally campaign and thus wasn’t thoroughly vetted. He won’t be able to hide next year because people now know what he’s about and what he’s capable of regardless of if he hits the trail or not. And that takes us to our current perception of President Biden and what history has to say about his prospects this far in advance of Election Day.
Gallup has maintained regular approval rating data analysis since the firm first started accredited polling in the 1930’s. Based on approval ratings on specific dates and eventual presidential outcomes there’s the opportunity to assign probabilities to re-election bids. Gallup’s current approval rating for President Biden stands at just 40%. With just over 18-months away from Election Day, that projects to a 49% probability of Joe Biden winning reelection. The lowest approval rating a president has had at this point in the cycle who has gone on to win re-election, was Ronald Reagan at 41% in 1983. This means that if Joe Biden is to be re-elected president, he’ll need to make history in overcoming his historically low approval ratings. It also means that as he officially kicks off his reelection campaign today, the current favorite is whomever emerges from the Republican primary process.