How Florida Feels About President Biden as He Begins His Re-Election Bid
Bottom Line: President Donald Trump won Florida by 3.3% in the 2020 election. It was nearly double his margin of victory in our state in 2016 and the largest margin of victory in Florida by a presidential candidate since George W. Bush’s win in 2004. The 2022 election cycle, highlighted by the historic Republican wins, with more Republicans winning elections up and down ballots than at any other point in Florida’s history – seemingly confirmed Florida had shifted from a swing state to a red state. More recently, voter registration changes continue to show Republicans growing ranks in Florida while Florida’s Democrats continue to hemorrhage voters. President Biden’s performance doesn’t appear to be helping the cause of Florida’s Democrats.
President Biden has never been popular in Florida. His highest approval rating in our state was 44% in the early weeks of his presidency. And his performance overtime has only fallen from there. Currently his approval rating in Florida is 38%, which is below the national average and his net approval rating is negative 14%. Notably, his approval rating is lower still with Florida’s Independents, or registered NPA’s as the case happens to be. President Biden’s approval rating is only 32% with Independents with a net negative approval rating of 26%. In fact, President Biden hasn’t retained a positive net approval rating with voters of any age in Florida. He also doesn’t retain positive approval among Floridians regardless of level of formal education. He’s underwater with both men and women.
The only demographic in which President Biden retains a positive approval rating is with Black voters. Here’s his current approval rating by racial demographics:
- Asian/Other: 28%
- White: 30%
- Hispanic/Latino: 41%
- Black: 76%
As I’ve discussed this week, President Biden is starting this campaign from a historically weak position with a lower approval rating at the onset of his re-election bid than any president who has won re-election since the onset of the polling age in the 1930’s. And with his approval rating lower still in Florida, it’s unlikely our state will meaningfully be in play in the 2024 Presidential election.