DeSantis is Framing the ‘24 Race & Floridians’ Checks are in the Mail – Top 3 Takeaways – May 15th, 2023
- The way the race will be framed. By my count Florida already has 79 new laws stemming from this year’s state legislative session. None of which is the state’s would-be new Election’s law which amends Florida’s resign-to-run law. In fact, I don’t see where the legislature has officially delivered it to the governor for DeSantis’ signature as of yet. That’s to say an official presidential bid from America’s governor isn’t imminent. At the same time, Ron DeSantis surely didn’t spend Saturday in Iowa, the first state to cast votes for president next year, because it’s especially beautiful this time of year. It also wasn’t likely a hankering for some especially fresh corn given that it’s prime sweet corn season in Florida. On Saturday, while in Iowa laying the groundwork for a nearly certain presidential run, DeSantis once again framed the race the way he appears ready to run it. A culture of losing. Saturday wasn’t the first time he’d been critical of Republicans potentially embracing a culture of losing; however, it was the most recent, and it was the central theme to his not-so-random visit to Iowa. Quoting DeSantis to those in attendance at his event: We must reject the culture of losing that has impacted our party in recent years. The time for excuses is over. If we get distracted, if we focus the election on the past or on other side issues, then I think the Democrats are going to beat us again. And that my friends is 100% on target. It was just on Friday that I said this in my top takeaways pertaining to Donald Trump, who incidentally was supposed to have a competing event in Iowa which didn’t take place due to a tornado warning: Trump took the bait. One of the most common questions I’m asked is if Trump can win the next election. This answer is yes. In fact, if we held a snap election today as our border is being overrun with illegal immigrants in record numbers as Title 42 has come to a close, I am all but certain that Donald Trump would wax Joe Biden. But the most instructive question isn’t really can he win? It’s will he win? And the answer to that one is that none of us know. But what I do know is that given Joe Biden’s abject failures it’s mostly up to Trump. And that’s why it was so disappointing to see that Trump took the bait. And it’s an ominous sign for the next presidential election. Wednesday night’s CNN Town Hall with Trump was a really odd combination of what turned out to be not so much a town hall but really a debate between Trump and Kaitlan Collins with Trump having a home field advantage. Yes, Kaitlan Collins started the show by baiting him with 2020. However, yes, he took it. And that’s the biggest thing. I’ve said it many times – including like many others have – to Donald Trump personally and I’ll say it again. Elections are always about the future. They’re never about the past. Anyone, including Donald Trump who runs on the past will lose. On Saturday, Governor DeSantis in three sentences crystalized his developing theme of combating a losing Republican culture while tying it precisely around Trump’s neck without mentioning him by name or going directly negative against Trump in the process.
- Ron DeSantis is right on this issue. Donald Trump for over two years has been consistently wrong on this issue. It’s clear this is the way that Ron intends to frame the race against Trump. While obviously not knowing how this story will play out, there are two distinct possibilities which could emerge from Ron’s effective framing of what he’s presenting as a “choice” Republican primary...at least if/when he officially enters the race. 1) Ron’s message makes Trump a better candidate by forcing him to leave the past behind in order to win the Republican primary for President, or 2) Trump stays on the self-destructive path of continuing to relive the 2020 election when asked/provoked and DeSantis’ Presidential prospects, which currently look dim for 2024, rise significantly as primary voters begin to pay closer attention to the candidates and the process. Trump’s polling average in the Republican primary still makes him a prohibitive favorite with a current 54% polling average nationally...meaning that as of today DeSantis could consolidate all of the remaining GOP support and it still wouldn’t be enough to knock off the former president. But could that change? The Republican primary race is far less likely to be as volatile as typical open primaries often are in the early going due to the firm opinions about Donald Trump specifically. But if you’re DeSantis looking for a window of opportunity, the data point that’s most interesting in polling right now would be this. While Trump’s consistently posting support that’s above 50% and double that of DeSantis’ support nationally – when Republican primary voters are asked if they’d be dissatisfied if Donald Trump were to be the Republican candidate, 22% say yes. When they’re asked if they’d be dissatisfied if Ron DeSantis were the candidate that figure is only 1% higher at 23%. In other words, while Trump’s support is currently far higher than DeSantis’, if DeSantis were the candidate, he effectively wouldn’t disappoint the party’s base any more than Trump being the candidate would. If the biggest consideration come January for most Republican voters is that of “who can best beat Biden” ...if DeSantis is on message and Trump isn’t - the window of opportunity may well be there for him.
- The Check’s in the mail. If you’ve used TurboTax and you receive a check in the mail this week from Rust Consulting, you’re not being scammed. This week over 350,000 Floridians will be receiving checks in the mail via Rust Consulting over the settlement between TurboTax’s parent company – Intuit and Florida over services they’d previously charged for illegally. Those who filed federal income taxes with TurboTax in 2016, 2017 and 2018 and had an average adjusted gross income of approximately $65,000 or less during those years are eligible for compensation that’s being paid out this week. TurboTax charged users during those three years for tax filing services that under federal law were to be free. Under the settlement, minimum checks of $29 per eligible tax filer are to be received, with a maximum of $85 for those who were eligible for free service but were charged in all three years. So, if this is you, keep your eye out for those checks because they are in the mail.