Q&A of the Day – If Florida’s Congressional Map is Overturned Would Republicans Lose Control of the House?
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Today’s Entry: As a following to today’s Q&A... if Florida’s map is over-turned wouldn’t that flip the House back to Democrats? Didn’t Florida’s GOP gains flip the House?
Bottom Line: Today’s note is a follow-up to yesterday’s Q&A of the day. At issue, whether the Supreme Court’s recent ruling striking down Alabama’s congressional map, via violations of the Voting Rights Act, would lead to Florida’s congressional map being struck down as well (as there are outstanding legal challenges citing the Voting Rights Act). With a razor thin eight-vote Republican majority in the House right now (which was just made thinner by the resignation of Utah Representative Chris Stewart due to his wife’s health issues he wants to attend to, and with Florida having played an important role in adding seats to the Republican delegation in Congress, your question is an excellent one. However, in the most literal sense, no, even if Florida’s map were to be overturned and even if the election results in Florida resembled the 2020 results as opposed to the historic 2022 results for Republicans in Florida, it wouldn’t impact control of the House as currently configured – though it’d be awfully close.
Florida’s Republican House delegation in 2020 consisted of 16 members. Currently there are 20 elected Republicans from Florida. One of those is a byproduct of Florida having gained one congressional district as a result of the redistricting process following the 2020 Census. The other three were flips from Democrats. Factoring in the two vacancies in the House (there’s one Democrat vacancy and one Republican vacancy), Republicans have a 221 to 212 majority. Even if Florida’s Republicans hadn’t flipped any seats from Democrats last November, the GOP would still have a 218 to 215 majority. That said, there’s another highly instructive related point in this conversation. That due to the historic Republican wave which played out in Florida last November – there wouldn’t have been any net partisan impact in the Florida delegation even if the legislature’s map, as opposed to the DeSantis map in question, had been used.
Following last November’s elections, data analytics and consulting firm MCI Maps, completed an analysis of the impact of the DeSantis map in comparison, to the one originally drawn by the state legislature. The narrative which had been advanced is that DeSantis’ map helped Republicans flip four Congressional seats last cycle – which given the tighter than expected GOP majority in the House - proved huge. Yes, the four additions were and are huge in the context of House control. Yes, DeSantis appears to have had a huge impact on these outcomes. No, DeSantis’ map wasn’t likely a factor at all. The MCI Map analysis showed a conclusion which suggested Florida’s congressional elections would have likely resulted in the same partisan splits even if the original map adopted by the legislature had been in force for the 2022 election cycle. While it’s a slightly inexact science, because ultimately some voters who voted in one congressional race, would have had different candidates to choose between had the legislature’s map been used, however if the partisan voting splits remained similar, the results would have resulted in the same number of seats being won by Republicans. In MCI’s findings two races would likely have had different outcomes, however with the same partisan split in the end.
Under the legislature’s map, Tallahassee Democrat Al Lawson would have retained his congressional seat. Of all the most controversial aspects of the DeSantis map, it was his minority seat which was and is subject to the majority of scrutiny. However, the legislature’s map would likely have led to Tampa Democrat Kathy Castor losing her seat, to her Republican challenger. Under DeSantis’ map, she retained her seat. While many were considering the potential for Miami-Dade to flip last year, there was essentially no conversation about Hillsborough, Pinellas and most certainly Palm Beach County flipping as well. Because of the Tampa metro turning red last year, the DeSantis map likely had no effect other than trading Democrat Al Lawson for Kathy Castor. Now that’s not to say it couldn't play a larger role in future cycles should the 2022 election prove to be a high-water mark for Republicans in Florida (though based on continued positive voter registration trends this year for Republicans that may not be the case). But for the 2022 cycle, and the current congress, it didn’t. And for that reason, even if the federal courts were to throw out the DeSantis-drawn map, it would likely impact representation at the district level, however, it may not have any partisan impact at all.