Political Tremors in Palm Beach County & Florida’s Congressional Map in the Crosshairs - Top 3 Takeaways – June 27th, 2023
- Political tremors in Palm Beach County. When it comes to natural disasters in South Florida there’s no doubt it’s hurricanes, not earthquakes, that are our thing. While a smattering of South Floridians felt the rumble of a 7.7 magnitude earthquake which struck near Jamaica in January of 2020, did you know that since the advent of earthquake record keeping in 1900, there’s been only one that’s been close enough to the Palm Beaches to be recorded as an official earthquake in our area? It was a 3.2 magnitude earthquake which struck just off of the coast of Grand Bahama on February 22nd of 1992. In fact, while South Florida may be one of the most hurricane-prone locations in the world, due to fault lines, we live in one of the least earthquake-prone zones in the world. In fact, there’s only a 3% chance the Palm Beaches will experience an earthquake of any magnitude over the next 50 years and less than a third of a one-percent chance that it would even be as significant as a magnitude 5. This is to say the much more likely earthquakes to occur in the Palm Beaches are of the political variety. And there’s what appears to be a much greater probability of a high magnitude political earthquake in PBC within the next 50 years than an actual earthquake of any kind over that time. Last November we experienced strong political tremors as Palm Beach County, historically the second most reliably blue county in the state, voted for the entire Republican ticket for cabinet for the first time since all of the current cabinet positions have existed.
- What’s coming next could prove to be every bit as earthshaking politically as a high magnitude earthquake is physically. Republicans have never had a voter registration advantage in Palm Beach County. Republicans aren’t about to have one anytime soon either. That said, whatever the time horizon is that sits just behind soon, it's starting to look like that could be altogether possible. Last month, statewide, Republicans improved their voter registration advantage relative to Democrats by just over 23,000 voters. As it turned out, close to half of that total came in Palm Beach County. Since the peak of Democrat dominance by way of voter registration in Palm Beach County – which happened about 15 years ago, Republicans have narrowed the voter registration gap with Democrats by over 52,500 voters. Of that, greater than 9,300 came in the last month alone. Democrats still hold a relatively large voter registration advantage in Palm Beach County; however, it’s rapidly shrinking – and never faster than it is right now. And voter registrations in the county have moved to the right by greater than 16,000 net voters since Palm Beach County’s red wave last Election Day. Voter registrations aren’t actual votes. And as Democrats proved last November, even having a large advantage certainly doesn’t guarantee victory. However, if voter trends do generally continue to track along with voter registration trends, we could be on the precipice of a new political era in the Palm Beaches which could have a profound impact in shaping local elections going forward. Republicans have already flipped the county commission. Many more local offices could be next and would-be local candidates for next year’s elections should take note. A political earthquake just might lead to a red tsunami locally in the not-so-distant future if current trends hold. Speaking of political trends...
- Two down and Florida’s map to go. Recently, when the United States Supreme Court struck down Alabama’s map over what was determined to be a violation of The Voting Rights Act, I had this to say in a Q&A when asked if that ruling had implications for what might eventually happen with federal challenges to Florida’s current congressional map... Every map case stands on its own. A 5-4 ruling invoking the Voting Rights Act was cited in striking down Alabama’s map doesn’t mean every related challenge would result in a similar outcome. That said, the case that will be made will in part be this... In Florida there are currently two majority Black districts out of 28, or 7% of the districts. Florida’s Black population is currently 17%. On the surface, that looks similar to the Alabama situation. Law is all about interpretation and there’s a lot of subjectivity with all Congressional maps. It’s understandable why those seeking to overturn Florida’s Congressional map feel emboldened following the recent Supreme Court decision. It’s also an oversimplification to suggest that Florida’s will automatically be struck down as well, as a result. What I said then remains just as true today but now with an added Louisiana-sized caveat attached. Earlier this year a federal appeals court ordered Louisiana to redraw its congressional map – adding another Black majority district – to make it compliant with the Voting Rights Act. The ruling was on hold as the United States Supreme Court agreed to consider the case. Well, they considered it, and decided to leave the lower court’s ruling in place. Florida’s map and the case for and against it stands alone from Alabama’s and Louisiana's maps. However, the arguments are the same, and there’s a clear case which can be made. It looks increasingly likely that it’s two state maps stuck down and may well be Florida’s to go (though when a final determination will be made isn’t known).