Florida’s Democrat Drag Show, Seaweed History & Make or Break Elections – Top 3 Takeaways – July 11th, 2023
- Message received. Ten years ago, Florida’s Democrats were riding high. Florida had voted for a Democrat for president for two consecutive cycles and changing demographics and voting trends seemed to favor their party. They also already had a voter registration advantage of greater than 550,000 voters over Republicans in the state. But a funny thing happened on the way to perceived Democrat dominance in Florida for generations to come. Florida’s Democrats moved to the left politically, away from the moderate Alex Sinks’ and Gwyn Grahams’ of the party and towards the left-wing Andrew Gillum's and Nikki Fried’s of it. The result, ten years later, Florida’s Democrats most recently suffered their worst election cycle in the party’s history, there’s not an elected Democrat in a statewide office for the first time since Reconstruction, and they now trail Republicans by about a half million voters (a gain of greater than a million voters net of Democrats in ten years) and speaking of Nikki Fried, who has a proclivity for weed, she’s now the party’s lead. And leading it she is. Where exactly, I’m not sure, but it’s colorful. Like literally. While there’s a clear case to be made that the party’s left-wing swing over the past decade, embracing the most radical elements of the party nationally, is behind their eroding base of voters in this state – especially among Hispanic/Latino voters – Fried doubled-down in the party’s annual shindig over the weekend. The annual Leadership Blue conference concluded with non-other than Velvet Lenore. What’s a Velvet Lenore you ask? A drag queen from West Palm Beach who regularly performs in Wilton Manors. Now obviously this was done as a stunt aimed at illustrating a contrast with Florida’s Republicans – which have enacted policy prohibiting children from being present at performances which are sexually suggestive. While the room was seemingly aroused based on the reaction to the performance, what are the odds the average Floridian is? What kind of message exactly is the Florida Democrat Party sending by wrapping their event with a drag show? For that matter, what kind of message are Floridia’s Democrats sending by taking a hard line in which they feel children should be subjected to sexually suggestive performances, regardless of the type? The message is received and I'm sure they’ve solidified the drag queen vote for years to come. However, that might be about all that’s left of their base at this rate.
- Seaweed history. As we’ve recently discussed, sargassmageton never happened. After months and months of hearing that the Great Atlantic Sargassum belt would dump record amounts of stinky weed on our beaches, it never came. And now the University of South Florida’s Optical Oceanography Lab has quantified how much it shrunk just last month – 75%. Why? They still don’t know, but what they do know, quoting the lead professor/researcher is that something like that has “never happened in history at this time of year”. That’s because however much seaweed might be floating through the Atlantic, it’s never been detected to be in decline prior to July, and the “sargassum season” isn’t over until September. That is until now. Here’s another researched quote: The sargassum season for Florida is very likely over for this year. So here we are with what we were told would be the worst seaweed event in Florida’s history that would stink up beaches all summer and that would potentially spread disease to beach goers. Instead, we’ve evidently just wrapped up the most benign sargassum season in Florida’s recorded history. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. When researchers can monitor a slow-moving blob of seaweed for months and yet can end up being 100% wrong about what will happen with it, how absurd is it to think they can predict what will happen with oceans years and decades into the future? Which btw, is why waterfront properties in Florida continue to hit fresh record high prices, despite the dire warnings that they’ll all be underwater in a matter of years. Maybe many of the dire climate warnings prove true. Or maybe they prove to be 100% incorrect due to some unknown reason that hadn’t been known to have happened before – just like the seaweed.
- Make or break. Recently, in an interview with Tomi Lahren, when asked about why he decided to run in 2024, as opposed to waiting it out for 2028, Governor DeSantis said, “I believe 2024 is make or break...I’ve shown the ability to defeat the Democrats”. His assessment is accurate. I do think in many ways, but most especially geopolitically with an eager China waiting in the wings, that 2024 is make or break for this country as the world’s leading superpower. And DeSantis is correct, that he’s shown he can beat Democrats. But what he hasn’t shown, and what there are no signs of him being able to do as of yet, is to defeat Donald Trump. And yes, polls in July when votes don’t start until January, are usually of little meaning. But this, of course, isn’t a usual election cycle. Having a former president on a primary ballot hasn’t happened in any of our lifetimes. And the former President of the United States continues to poll as though he’s the incumbent President of the United States in Republican primary circles – including in Florida. Speaking of which, just yesterday, FAU’s latest Florida presidential primary poll showed Trump with a 20% lead over DeSantis. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which DeSantis could lose his home state (though it happens to be Trump’s too) and win the primary. 2024 may be make or break for the country, but it’s Florida that’s likely make or break for DeSantis and he has serious work to do. But here’s the question. What Florida Republican primary voter isn’t familiar with Donald Trump? What Florida Republican primary voter isn’t familiar with Ron Desantis? So, if Trump has a huge lead today – even if the poll is off considerably – what's going to change that? It’s the biggest question of all for DeSantis. It’s true everywhere, but nowhere more so than here. Btw, as yet another indicator of how Florida’s continuing to trend politically... The FAU poll shows both Trump and DeSantis beating Biden by double-digits in a potential general election matchup. The last presidential election in Florida which was decided by ten-points or more was George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988.