Florida Sides w/DeSantis over Disney & Trump’s GOP Domination – Top 3 Takeaways – July 12th, 2023
- Top Gov. Governor DeSantis is no stranger to being a top target for criticism. Starting with the first day he bucked the Fauch’s lockdown policy positions during the pandemic, he’s regularly been the focus of criticism. It’s not only come from Florida’s Democrats and various state news media outlets, but by national and even international news outlets. Undeterred, last November he won the largest victory by a Republican governor in Florida since Reconstruction and led a record Republican wave in Florida – illustrating the extent of the disconnect between Democrats, their allies in news media and the average Floridian. The feat was even more impressive in an election cycle which was disappointing for Republicans nationally. There’s a reason why the term “America’s Governor” ended up sticking for DeSantis. Florida’s been the top performing economy in the country since the onset of the pandemic, we’ve been the top destination for relocations in the country, and we’re now even number one for education – which is especially notable given that Florida was near the bottom a couple of decades ago. And it didn’t just happen by chance. Education reforms have been front and center in DeSantis’ reforms starting with the day he first took office. They started with the replacing of the Common Core curriculum with the BEST standards. But they continued with opening schools as early as possible during the pandemic and passing multiple Parental Rights in Education bills into law. Laws which placed him in the crosshairs of Disney which he refused to back down from. Clearly, based on the outcome of last year’s elections, most Floridians either didn’t care what Disney had to say about DeSantis and his policies, or they outright sided with the governor on them. And guess what...
- We still do. Given DeSantis’ struggles to gain traction against former President Donald Trump in the Republican Presidential primary, the sharp knives have come out from seemingly all directions (with Trump leading the charge from the right) aimed at him. As a result, some have hypothesized that DeSantis wouldn’t be able to repeat his performance from last year if that election were held today. Many have suggested and had hoped he’d lost the support of Floridians. Well, as had been the case with all of the previous attacks on DeSantis and assumptions about how it’d play politically, it appears as though they’re wrong. Within the FAU polling released Monday, which showed Trump with a huge lead over DeSantis in Republican primary polling, was a lot of contextual polling – starting with Disney. 4% More Floridians currently support DeSantis over Disney. And DeSantis’ overall approval rating stands at a net positive 11-points – which means America’s Governor might not end up being the next President of the United States, however he remains the Top Gov in the eyes of a still large majority of Floridians. And as for Disney...not so much. It speaks volumes when a majority of Floridians continue to choose their governor over a once beloved company. With Disney having now lost over half of its value since its peak prior to taking DeSantis on there’s a defined winner and loser in this battle in the eyes of Floridians. And Disney would clearly be better served to serve its customers as opposed to pushing left-wing social agendas and programming aimed at children. But as for the race he doesn’t appear to be winning...
- Trump domination. I’m not sure if I had a preconceived notion of where the Republican primary race would be today with DeSantis in the mix, but I’m pretty sure I’d have thought he’d be more competitive than he’s continuing to appear to be. We’ve now begun to enter the early days of the Republican primary prognostication season and entering the fray first is the most accurate service from last year’s election cycle, Race to the White House. The service runs various scenarios based on available delegates in primary states and with various candidates remaining in the race. As of their current prognostications, the primary race as of today looks to be sheer Trump domination from their perspective. As of today, with all declared candidates in the race, Trump’s shown to win 49 of the 50 states – with a statistical tie in Utah with DeSantis. Under their scenario Trump would win 2,058 delegates in the GOP primary compared to just 349 for DeSantis. More challenging still for DeSantis is the head-to-head scenario they’ve outlined. Right along conventional wisdom has held that additional GOP candidates for president help Trump because it splits the “non-Trump” vote within the party. Well, the current Race to the White House projection does kind of show that to be the case, but even then – if the only two candidates in the race by mid-February, after the earliest states have voted, are the two of them... Trump’s projected to win 2,059 delegates (one more than he would in a divided field) with DeSantis picking up only 397 (48 more than he would in a divided field). The picture this currently paints is a growing one of Trump’s growing domination over the GOP field. The most recent rumbles from around the DeSantis camp are that he’s waiting to see what will happen with potential future Trump indictments in Georgia, over alleged election interference in the certification of Georgia’s 2020 election results and another potential federal indictment over alleged January 6th incitement. That may or may not be the plan at this point, but for all who’ve been talking about it, my question is why there would be any expectation for Trump’s support to change? He’s already been indicted twice, and his support has seemingly only risen in the wake of those indictments. Why would two more indictments suddenly change one’s perspective? If anything for those who believe there’s a two-tiered system of justice, which as I recently reported is now even most independents in this country, it potentially may only further cement their support for the man they feel has been the target of a two-tiered justice system. Rather than a heavy weight battle to a bitter finish, something would appear to need to change significantly, for reasons that are currently unknown, for the Republican primary battle to be anything other than one which is dominated by Trump. It’s early, so something coming out of left field that’s not on anyone’s radar changing the dynamic in the race is possible.