Campaign Cash & The First Vetting Contest of the 2024 Presidential Race – Top 3 Takeaways – July 17th, 2023
- Campaign cash. The first official contest of the 2024 Presidential election cycle isn’t in Iowa, and it isn’t in January. It’s the race to get on the first debate stage. It’s in full swing and is already set to produce some surprises. The debate, which is set to take place in about five weeks on August 23rd, is the first real make-or-break moment for all declared candidates. Qualify for the debate and there’s the perception, if not the reality, that a candidate is at least credible. Not being able to qualify for that debate, in what is already a crowded Republican primary field, and is led by a former president, would speak for itself about the viability of one’s campaign and potential chances. It’s hard to imagine people would be inclined to throw any cash behind the campaigns of non-qualifying candidates. And the key to being eligible to take a place on that debate stage is the ability to rake in campaign cash from enough people and enough places, in addition to eking out just about any kind of measurable support in a couple of polls. Specifically, the requirements for debate eligibility are these... 1) Receiving campaign donations from at least 40,000 people, with a minimum of 200 unique donors in at least 20 different states 2) Polling at 1% or greater in three national polls or two national polls and one state poll 3) Must sign a “loyalty pledge” to support the party’s eventual nominee in the general election. So that’s two that are quantifiable and one that any candidate could qualify for...if they choose to. The Republican Party isn’t leaving open the opportunity for never Trumpers on the debate stage – which is especially interesting for Chris Christe as his entire candidacy appears to be based on it. Likewise, the party isn’t leaving open the opportunity for Trump to break from the party and go his own way should he be upset in the primary process – if he wants to debate anyway, which is a very open-ended question currently. He’s repeatedly suggested he may not choose to. But back to the
- Qualifying for the debate stage – which every candidate not named Trump desires to be on... The drop-dead date to be able to qualify for it is five weeks from today – August 21st. So, with five weeks to go for the first unofficial contest of the 2024 Presidential Election cycle – who appears to be in (if they choose to be), who’s on the outside looking in & how are the candidates performing...? Those that appear to already qualify based on the first two criteria are these candidates- Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie. Yep, that’s it – just six as of right now which may well grow. I mentioned there would be some surprises. And on that note, the biggest name I didn’t mention is actually the person who’s consistently polled in third since entering the race, former Vice President Mike Pence. While he’s certainly polling well enough to qualify for the debate, he’s not fundraising enough to do much of anything – let alone a debate. Since Mike Pence entered the race a total of only $1.2 million has been directly raised by his campaign (his PAC performed a bit better bringing in about double that number). And how does that compare? On Saturday all candidates had to report their campaign cash through the 2nd quarter to the Federal Election Commission. Here’s how the GOP candidates have fared thus far in attracting campaign cash. The totals reflect what the candidates have raised in addition to their PACs. DeSantis is on top with an extremely impressive haul of $150 million raised – with $20 million directly to Florida’s governor with his PAC having been stacked with the rest of the cash. Trump’s next up with $35+ million. Nikki Haley has raised a bit more than $26 million. Tim Scott has pulled in over $25 million.
- Now here’s where it starts to get especially interesting... Who’s fifth in fundraising? None other than Miami Mayor Frances Suraz who’s pulled in nearly $14 million as Miami’s “Magic Man” pulled in about a mil on this own with his PAC raking in lots of cash from his tech friends. And then there’s North Dakota’s Governor Doug Burgum, who’s worked a little magic by offering $20 gift cards for $1 donations which has brought in nearly $2 million from the outside and $10 million from the inside (he’s given his own campaign about $10 million). Ramaswamy has pulled in nearly $8 million – ditto Chris Christie. So, where’s Mike Pence? He’s pulled in a paltry (not quite) $4 million in all. The support, or lack thereof financially for Pence’s campaign speaks volumes about the extent of his support. He might be polling in third, but it’s clear those people largely aren’t putting money behind that voiced support. No other candidates have pulled in even a million. Campaign cash isn’t everything, as evidenced by DeSantis dominating all other campaigns, while still being dominated by Trump in the polls, but it’s critical in order to qualify for the first debate, and it’s a temperature check of the real base of support candidates have in a race. It’s one thing to say you’ll back a candidate in a poll, it’s another to put money behind that claim. Unless of course we’re talking about Burgum, who figured out how to make donating campaign cash a profitable endeavor for people. Talk is cheap as they say. And who had Doug Burgum straight up out fundraising Mike Pence? There are still five weeks to go to qualify for the debate, but as of today the former Vice President wouldn’t. Campaign cash and polls are the first vetting instruments of the 2024 Presidential race, and there may well be some surprises with who’s in and who’s out in five weeks. Along with the intrigue factor as people wonder what Trump will do?