Q&A of the Day – Is Florida Losing Tourists Due to Politics?
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Today’s Entry: There are a lot of stories out there about lost conventions and tourists visiting other states because of politics. Are the lost conventions being replaced by others coming in their place? Also, what about overall tourism numbers?
Bottom Line: The short answer is that there definitely has been an impact on Florida-based conventions and tourism with political considerations factoring in. And it’s cut both ways. Disney’s decision to take on Governor DeSantis and the state of Florida over the Parental Rights in Education law has led to an incredible change in the perception of the company within the past year. Disney is now viewed as the 5th most polarizing brand in the country, with only a little over 60% of Republicans still holding a positive view of the company. Not all of that long ago it was a top 3-brand with greater than 90% of Americans holding a positive view of the company. The result has been obvious. Stories recently emerged of Disney World’s “shockingly low” attendance over the Independence Day weekend, with metrics which track foot traffic at the theme parks showing attendance at Disney World was only 57% of what it was over the same time in 2019. Fewer people going to Disney means less revenue for Orlando generally and in the city’s most recent tourist tax revenue reporting – revenues were lower in the metro by nearly 7% over a year ago. It does appear that many conservatives are avoiding Disney, and as a result – many aren’t traveling to Orlando at all.
As for conventions, numerous announcements have been made in recent weeks about canceled Florida events moved out of state for political reasons. Here's the total based on location:
- Miami – 1
- Orlando - 5
- Fort Lauderdale – 6
And as for the question of whether they’re being replaced with other events that would offset the revenue – the answer appears to be no as of now. The Wall Street Journal has reported that lost revenue from pulled conventions is now in the neighborhood of $20 million. In the grand scheme of Florida’s massive $100 billion+ tourism industry – it’s not much, but it is something. Especially to the specific venues which are taking the hit.
So, we have a situation where Florida’s tourism industry is being negatively impacted at the margins by both ends of the political spectrum with conservatives less inclined to visit Orlando due to Disney and progressives less likely to hold conventions within the state due to Governor DeSantis, and the actions of the state legislature. But of course, Florida has been setting record after record for net migration and tourism over the past couple of years. Has the momentum been enough to overcome the losses overall? The answer is most likely yes.
We’ll have to wait for about another month to receive the results of the important 2nd quarter figures from Visit Florida. But what we saw through the first quarter of the year was an impressive record surge in tourism. In the first quarter 2.4 million more tourists visited Florida compared to last year’s record setting first quarter. That was an increase of 6.7% year-over-year. The largest chuck of gains came in the form of overseas tourists meaningfully rebounding from the effects of the pandemic with an increase of nearly 2 million additional international visitors – a 36% increase over the prior year. Overseas tourists are far less likely to make decisions about whether to come to our state based on partisan political considerations. For that reason alone, it’s likely that any potential losses domestically could be offset by increased foreign travelers. International tourism still hasn’t recovered to prepandemic levels – so there’s lots of room for growth there as well. So, is Florida losing some business due to politics? Yes, on both sides of the isle. Is Florida’s tourism industry suffering overall as a result? Certainly not with record visitors and revenues in the first quarter. And most likely not in the second quarter – though that report when it comes out will be the key to understanding the extent of the impact politics has had on tourism.