Trinidad and Tobago, Election Integrity & Presidential Odds (and Oddities) – Top 3 Takeaways – July 25th, 2023
- Trinidad and Tobago. In the grand scheme of potentially random top takeaways this one surely must seem like it would take the cake. No, I’m not planning a late summer vacation to Trinidad and Tobago, but if I wanted to witness a country and a region with greater election integrity than the United States – that's where I would go. Trinidad and Tobago is my top takeaway today because in Harvard University’s just released Electoral Integrity Project, which accounts for all world-wide elections through the 2022 election cycle, has identified that the United States most recently scored 64 out of 100 in Election Integrity in last year’s mid-term election cycle. And that score places us just below Trinidad and Tobago in election integrity. And as sad as that may sound, and make no mistake it is, the US is tied with Gambia in election integrity with the country right below us being Ghana (those who may recall by reporting from a couple of years ago may recall that we’d previously been just ahead of Vanuatu), it’s actually an improvement by a couple of points over where we were in 2020. It’s remarkable that we’re the world’s leading superpower complete with the greatest technology companies in the world, top medical advancements and crappy election systems which are often surpassed by undeveloped countries. Long before we witnessed questionable election practices in several states during the 2020 election cycle, Harvard University’s Electoral Integrity Project studied election systems used around the world with their first project studying election integrity conducted after the 2012 election cycle. What we’ve learned a decade later is that the more election cycles and politicians change...
- The more our woefully inadequate systems remain the same. The United States ranks 55th overall in election integrity (up from 57th two years ago – yay). Literally every country in Europe has greater election integrity than we do (Finland leads the world with an 89) and in the Americas alone there are 15 countries, including the aforementioned Trinidad and Tobago, which rank higher for election integrity than we do. And here’s the broader point. So many state and local governments have so woefully created election systems and protocols that several undeveloped countries, including countries migrants are seeking asylum from, have greater integrity in their elections than ours. After the 2020 election cycle I mentioned the biggest takeaway was the need to significantly improve our election systems. In Florida and a handful of other states that’s happened. However, in many states where the biggest concerns already existed, no positive changes to improve integrity have been made. Which certainly leads minds which are paying attention to wonder. It’s unrealistic to think we can remain the world’s superpower and the beacon of freedom in the world if we’re running elections worse than every developed country in the world – which is pretty much the case. Any country which doesn’t have free and fair elections can’t expect to retain freedom and prosperity. So yes, election integrity measures taken by some states, a la Florida, over the prior couple of years did slightly move the needle in a positive direction overall in this country, but wow, do we have a long way to go before we could feel good about the integrity of our elections. Probably not what you wanted to hear heading into a presidential election cycle next year. But by highlighting these findings and drawing attention to the obvious holes in our systems now, provides another opportunity for state and local election officials across the country to act in advance of next year’s election cycle. No disrespect is intended for Gambia, but when we’re not running elections better than they are there’s a clear indication significant changes are still needed throughout much of this country. Speaking of elections...
- Interesting odds. Plenty of people like to bet offshore on political outcomes. And for the people who’ve already been doing it we’re seeing interesting odds. For example, President Biden is currently priced with less than a 70% chance of winning the Democrat nomination for president and is only being priced with a 34% chance of winning the next presidential election. That’s quite the statement by people who’re putting their money where their mouths are. Also interesting, the candidate with the second-best chance of winning the Democrat nomination and someone who’s currently being priced with a better chance than Ron DeSantis of being the next president isn’t even in the race. It’s the Hair, California’s Gavin Newsom. There clearly continues to be a contingent of believers that Biden will bow out and Newsom will swoop in. And in Republican primary circles, the bettors are at odds with many of the polls. While Trump is currently the runaway favorite with 67% odds of winning the Republican nomination and DeSantis is second at 11% - Pence who’s consistently polled in third place is having a hard time finding anyone who will place any money on his candidacy. I guess it stands to reason that if he’s having a hard time fundraising for his campaign, he’d have a harder time finding people who will put their money on him winning. Anyway, the bettors have Ramaswamy third, Scott fourth and Haley fifth. And how bad is it currently for Mike Pence? Tucker Carlson currently has better odds of becoming the Republican nominee than he does. Pence’s odds are down to a half of one percent, or tied with Senator Tom Cotton, who’s also not in the race. The odds by the bettors are interesting to me because if I were a betting man, and I’m not, I’d currently have Biden first, Newsom second and Kennedy third in the Democrat’s race with Trump first, DeSantis second and Ramaswamy third in Republican circles – that's exactly what the betting odds currently reflect and I find it interesting. It’s already been an unprecedented primary season and we’re just really getting started. How many people are confident Bernie, I mean Biden can be propped up there for another 15+ months? How realistic is the possibility that Trump may literally run a race from behind bars? There are interesting odds for what should be an interesting race, however it happens to work out.