Q&A of the Day – Is El Nino Beneficial for Florida?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station’s page in the iHeart app.
Today’s Entry: Brian, I’ve heard you talk about how positive El Nino is for us during hurricane season. However, I read that it’s actually linked to more severe weather for Florida, not less. Can you please clarify?
Bottom Line: I have enthusiastically talked up the potential benefits of El Nino for Florida on several occasions since the first signs that the weather pattern was on its way to us in March. And my enthusiasm has been two-fold. First that we were saying goodbye to the La Nina cycle heading into the spring and second that it was being immediately replaced by an El Nino cycle right behind it. As I said at the end of March... When it comes to the Atlantic Hurricane season, the La Nina effect is the ultimate hurricane incubator. La Nina patterns bring cooler surface temperatures to the Pacific Ocean while doing just the opposite in the Atlantic. And along with warmer surface temperatures in the Atlantic, comes less wind shear as well. For the better part of the past eight years and eight hurricane seasons La Nina stirred the meteorological pot. And as for El Nino – the pattern which brings warmer surface temps to the Pacific, with cooler surface temps to the Atlantic along with a whole lot of wind shear. And today’s note came after having this to say on Monday... In El Nino I trust. No, El Nino isn’t a sure thing when it comes to reducing impacts during hurricane season, but yes, it is Florida’s best friend during it. So, in addressing today’s question, is it true that El Nino causes additional severe weather for Florida, or is it of benefit? The answer is actually both.
Here’s what the National Weather Service has to say about El Nino:
El Niño has global impacts: some negative, some positive. Even for Florida and the Southeast U.S., some El Niño influences are beneficial; some not so beneficial.
- El Niño has been linked to reductions in Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased vertical wind shear.
- El Niño generally brings above average precipitation to Florida during Fall-Winter-Spring...reduced risk of wildfires...higher risk of flooding.
- Increased storminess across the southern U.S. increases the threat of severe weather in Florida during El Niño winters.
The benefits of El Nino for Florida are:
- Fewer hurricanes
- Fewer wildfires
- Reduced risk of drought
The negatives brought about by El Nino for Florida are:
- More flash floods
- More tornadoes
The listener who submitted today’s question noted that there’s “more severe weather” experienced in Florida due to El Nino and that’s obviously correct. There are two types of severe weather which typically increase with an El Nino weather pattern. Flash floods and tornadoes. This is where the conversation becomes a contextual one. Would you prefer to take the tradeoff of fewer hurricanes, fewer wildfires and fewer droughts in exchange for more flash floods and more tornado activity? For me the answer is clearly yes, and in general in terms of people negatively impacted by weather in Florida, the answer is also yes. As we just saw with Hurricane Ian on Florida’s Gulf Coast, and into central Florida last year, there’s no more devastating weather event for Florida than the impact of a major hurricane. And El Nino doesn’t just greatly reduce the likelihood of hurricane landfalls in Florida, it also greatly reduces the impact of a major hurricane landfall.
Historically, as studied by Florida State University, the impact of El Nino reducing major hurricane risk is profound. According to their findings...
- There’s a 74% chance of a major hurricane landfall within the US during non-El Nino years (that includes neutral and La Nina cycle)
- There’s a 25% chance of a major hurricane landfall within the US during El Nino years
In Florida specifically, the likelihood of a major hurricane strike is under 10% in El Nino years compared to about 30% in non-El Nino years. Yes, there’s greater risk of tornadic activity and flash floods (due to more and heavier rain as we’ve already experienced this rainy season) during these cycles, but then again major hurricanes also commonly bring tornadoes and flooding along with them as well. To boil it down, El Nino increases our day-to-day, isolated, severe weather risk in Florida while greatly reducing the risk of the worst weather events that impact the most people. As always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. Those are the facts related to this conversation and you're welcome to decide how you feel about the related tradeoffs between the weather patterns.