Q&A of the Day – The Months Hurricanes Most Often Strike Florida
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Today’s Entry: Brian- In a news report I heard during your show an expert said September and October are the two most common months for hurricane landfalls in Florida. Is that really true? I’d be willing to bet August has been worse for Florida.
Bottom Line: Yesterday we were talking of having passed the statistical peak of hurricane season based on monitored activity dating back to the onset of record keeping in 1851. If history holds more than half of all tropical activity for this year’s hurricane season is behind us. That said, as we know hurricane season runs through November for a reason. And as we saw with Hurricane Nicole impacting the east coast of Florida last year, hurricane landfalls can happen well past the peak of the season. The report you’ve specifically referenced featured commentary from a National Weather Service meteorologist who made the comment that while September 10th is the peak of hurricane season, most of Florida’s hurricane landfalls actually come in September and October. So, in other words, if we’re looking at our local considerations, perhaps we’re not really past the peak of when storms are most likely to impact Florida. So, let’s see if the bet you’re willing to make would be a good one.
I went back to the scorecard of all hurricane landfalls tracked by NOAA since 1851 and broke out the months they made landfall in Florida. Here’s what the survey says...
- June: 4%
- July: 6%
- August: 20%
- September: 39%
- October: 28%
- November: 3%
As it turns out your bet wouldn’t be a good one. The National Weather Service meteorologist was correct in stating that the majority of Florida’s hurricane landfalls have taken place in September and October. This holds true as well with major hurricanes (category 3 or above) that have made landfall in Florida as well. Here’s that breakout:
- June: 3%
- July: 3%
- August: 18%
- September: 51%
- October: 26%
- November: 0%
So, we see by breaking out the majors, that September and October have combined for over three-quarters of all major hurricane landfalls in Florida. Not only are most hurricane landfalls in Florida typically during September and October, but the overwhelming majority of major hurricanes which make landfall in the state are as well. This makes Florida’s hurricane story a little bit different than that of most states potentially impacted by hurricanes because it is true that August and September are the two most active months of hurricane season...just not by way of landfalls in Florida. In happier news, while we obviously have a ways to go before we’re out of the woods, we are past the peak of activity in the season – so there’s that and what will hopefully be a long time before we’re talking about a hurricane landfall in Florida any month.