The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – September 13th
Bottom Line: We’re now just two weeks away from the second Republican Primary Presidential Debate as we advance deeper into primary season. In recent weeks we’ve seen one GOP candidate dropout, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, but have seen very little movement otherwise. Only two candidates are consistently polling higher than they were prior to that first debate: Nikki Haley and Mike Pence. While those two have improved their standing, the impact in the race itself is minimal given that both are in the mid-single digits polling in the 4th and 5th positions nationally.
The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates in the face of four looming criminal cases which he faces heading into next year’s presidential election year.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls which also factor into which candidates will be eligible to participate in the 2nd debate September 27th (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 53% (flat)
- DeSantis: 14% (-1)
- Ramaswamy: 7% (flat)
- Haley: 6% (flat)
- Pence: 5% (flat)
- Christie: 3% (flat)
- Scott: 2% (flat)
All other candidates are polling under 1%. With the only movement in the race being a slight dip in support for DeSantis over the past week, the race is currently static and may well prove to be until the second debate, and more likely, until additional candidates drop out of the race. All signs continue to point towards a race in which Trump would benefit from numerous candidates being in the race, splitting the non-Trump vote. At the same time, it doesn’t appear as though there’s any movement towards a consensus Trump alternative candidate by the electorate. Notably, Trump remains below 50% in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina (while still holding large leads in those three states in the currently crowded field). This suggests the possibility that a non-Trump candidate may have the potential to win those states.
As of today, two of the participants in the first debate have yet to meet the requirements to participate in the next debate – Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson. Until next week...