The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – October 4th, 2023
Bottom Line: We’re a week removed from the second Republican Primary Debate. What was the impact? Who were the winners and losers? The more things change in this race, the more they essentially stay the same. The 2nd debate, by way of polling performance one week later did produce one clear beneficiary and one clear loser but did absolutely nothing to change the trajectory of the race.
Trump’s polling lead was 43-points over his closest competition (Ron DeSantis) before the 2nd debate, it remains 43-points after the 2nd debate. That’s a lead that’s three points higher than prior to the first debate. It's clear that Trump’s decision to skip the debates has worked out perfectly fine for him. Only one candidate is polling higher than they were prior to that first debate: Nikki Haley. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates in the face of four looming criminal cases which he faces heading into next year’s presidential election year in addition to the civil case over Trump’s stated asset values that’s underway in New York.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls which also factored into which candidates were eligible to participate in the 2nd debate (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 57% (flat)
- DeSantis: 14% (flat)
- Haley: 7% (+2)
- Ramaswamy: 5% (-2)
- Pence: 4% (flat)
- Christie: 3% (flat)
- Scott: 3% (flat)
- Burgum: 1% (flat)
The net sum impact of the second debate appears to be Nikki Haley gaining two points of support at the expense of Vivek Ramaswamy. So essentially, we’re exactly where we were a week ago with Haley and Ramaswamy having flipped polling numbers. And with both still mired in the mid-single digits the effect is negligible. Trump’s 57% support among GOP primary voters exceeds the level of support he had a year ago when only a few candidates were polled alongside him. Trump remains at a high-water mark in this cycle.
The primary contest is still about what happens in individual states, as opposed to national polls, however those have been favorable for Trump as well. Trump enjoys a current polling lead of 33-points in Iowa, 31-points in New Hampshire, 32-points in South Carolina and 31-points in Nevada. Until next week...