The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – October 18th, 2023
Bottom Line: We’re now only a little over a year away from Election Day and historically inside of a window in which eventual presidential primary winners have moved into front runner status in route to winning the party’s nomination. Eight of the past nine polling leaders on this date in open Republican presidential primary processes have gone on to win the nomination (only Giuliani in 2007 – didn't eventually win). We’re also closing in on the 3rd and final Republican debate which will be held November 8th in Miami.
Former President Donald Trump’s polling lead was 39-points over his closest competition (Ron DeSantis) before the first debate, it’s now 45-points, a new high, after two debates. It's clear that Trump’s decision to skip the debates has worked out perfectly fine for him. Only one candidate is polling higher than they were prior to that first debate... Nikki Haley. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls which also factor into debate eligibility (changes are compared to a week ago):
- Trump: 58% (+1)
- DeSantis: 13% (flat)
- Haley: 8% (+1)
- Ramaswamy: 6% (flat)
- Pence: 4% (flat)
- Christie: 3% (+1)
- Scott: 2% (flat)
- Burgum: 1% (flat)
As the weeks tick by with little conviction for any Trump challenger, the feeling of inevitability continues to grow. Trump has a larger polling lead, by a wide margin, than any that’s been overcome by a candidate who’s gone on to win a party’s nomination. Trump’s 58% support among GOP primary voters exceeds the level of support he had a year ago when only a few candidates were polled alongside him.
National polls serve as temperature checks, however it’s of course what happens in individual states, that determine the winner. Trump enjoys a current polling lead of 33-points in Iowa, 31-points in New Hampshire, 33-points in South Carolina and 38-points in Nevada. Until next week...