Florida’s Feelings on ‘Bidenflation & The Next Phase of the Republican Race Is Here - Top 3 Takeaways – October 30th, 2023
- Floridians feel the effects. A dollar in your pocket when Joe Biden became president is only worth 82 cents today. As we’re now two and half years into the full effects of ‘Bidenflation our collective frustration with it and him are real. New surveying of Floridians shows that even in a state which has been number one nationally in job growth, income growth, population growth and overall economic growth since Joe Biden became president, the effects of ‘Bidenflation continue to take a toll on most. By a margin of 46% to 19% Floridians say their family’s finances are worse off than a year ago. And who do we blame? You know who. A huge 65% of Floridians say Joe Biden doesn’t deserve to be reelected president of the United States. Aside from housing affordability challenges which remain significant, it's clear who Floridians blame for the state of their personal economy entering a recession. And just imagine, we have the best economy in the country. Consider what it’s like for those who don’t. The implications of that reality will loom large in next year’s presidential election cycle. Speaking of which...
- The next phase of the Republican race. Francis Suarez, Will Hurd, Larry Elder, Perry Johnson. Know what they had in common? They were the first four Republican Presidential candidates to drop out of the race and they had no measurable support between them. Like literally, zero support when measured nationally. That made their exits from the race the equivalent of the analogy about a tree falling in a forest. The difference is that when former Vice-President Mike Pence succumbed to reality Saturday, there was a witness to the sound that his falling tree made. Actually, there were a smattering of witnesses. Was there a realistic chance Mike Pence was ever going to be the Republican nominee for president, no? Was he at least a credible candidate? Yes. And that’s what’s ushered in the next phase of the Republican race for president - the first credible candidate is out of the race. At the time of his departure this weekend Pence was running fifth, ahead of candidates with much stronger fundraising totals, in Chris Christie and Tim Scott, while averaging the support from about 3.5% of GOP primary voters. Now, in a race in which the former and perhaps future President of the United States is showing leads of at least 30-points in every state does it really matter? Outside of the conversations of political junkies...not much. Any contending candidate to Trump would still have to do what’s never been done to overcome the size of his current advantage. That said...
- The “rise is real”. The first question I was asked was who would benefit the most from his exit? My gut instinct an immediate response was Nikki Haley. No sooner had I said that than reporters began reporting it. Like this story from Politico entitled: The Rise is Real: Haley’s breakout is jolting 2024’s undercard race. In the story they state: It isn’t just that Haley has navigated past the prognostications of her political death. It’s that the timing of her rise — with several rivals fading, one newly out, and with increasingly urgent calls for a consolidation of the primary field — is already reshaping the GOP's longshot undercard race to overtake Donald Trump. While being on the exact same page with Politico had me briefly questioning my political instincts, I think that sentiment is right. As I’ve pointed out in my weekly updates on the race for weeks – since the onset of the debates there’s been only one participating candidate who has improved their standing in the race and that’s Nikki. Momentum matters heading into elections and with the first votes to be cast now only being a little more than a couple of months away, the race for number two is on. As I said as recently as September following the 2nd GOP debate... The problem for all non-Trump candidates is twofold. It’s not just about being the top performing non-Trump candidate in the race. How has that worked out for DeSantis thus far? It’s about being dominate enough that one is the ONLY non-Trump candidate in the race. There’s not enough oxygen or votes in the room for others. And that leads to the second and even bigger challenge. Even if there was a singular, dominate, non-Trump candidate in the race who was so impressive all of the others folded...they’d still have to convince at least 8% of Donald Trump’s supporters to vote for them instead. What’s changed in just over a month? Only that the task for any non-Trump candidate is harder as they’d now have to convince over 9% of current Trump supporters that they represent the better way forward for the country. But given that the reality on the ground is that there’s only actually room for one non-Trump candidate in this race if they’re to have any realistic chance of making history, the first and most important key is being the top non-Trump candidate in the race before votes are cast in January. Nikki Haley now has a realistic chance to do just that. At the peak of his polling Governor DeSantis held a 28-point lead over Nikki Haley. These days DeSantis could double his support in the race and still not be at 28% support in total. As of today, Haley’s average deficit to DeSantis is just 4.3% - a figure that’s awfully close to Pence’s pledged support. Should DeSantis’ fledgling campaign continue to struggle, and should Nikki’s continue to rise – boosted by consolidating most of the former Pence support, she’s got a realtistic chance of being the top non-Trump candidate in the race by go time which also would create a clearer contrast for Republican primary voters. DeSantis’ peak appeal was to present himself as “Trump without the bad stuff”. Nikki’s appeal has been to make an appeal as being a bit more independent from the former president – despite her having served as U.N. Ambassador under him. As she said at the Republican Jewish Coalition event this weekend: The stakes couldn’t be higher and given those stakes, we cannot have four years of chaos, vendettas and drama. Eight years ago, it was good to have a leader who broke things. But right now, we need a leader who also knows how to put things back together. That message has the potential to appeal to the average non-Trump GOP voter which also in its own way draws a contrast with DeSantis’ largely “Trump-lite” campaign. The next phase of the Republican race is here and the undercard race for second place just became that much more interesting.