Unpacking Tuesday’s Election Results
Bottom Line: By any objective perspective Democrats had the better night Tuesday as off year elections played out across a smattering of states. As the results rolled in, there were plenty of similarities to last year’s midterm elections. Optimistic expectations by Republicans about pickups in key states being dashed with Democrats often holding ground and/or winning some pickups. With a historically unpopular president leading the party, conventional wisdom would suggest the landscape should be favorable for Republicans. That it’s not proving more favorable at the ballot box for Republican candidates up and down ballots for two consecutive years suggests there are more structural issues with the Republican party’s messaging. First, let’s look at what happened in partisan elections Tuesday night:
- New Jersey Democrats held the state legislature
- Virginia Democrats held the state senate and flipped the state house to Democrat control
- Kentucky’s Democrat Governor Andy Beshear won by a larger margin than four years ago
- Mississippi's Republican Governor Tate Reeves won his reelection bid
In three out of the four states the news was best for Democrats. There’s also Ohio’s non-partisan constitutional ballot measures on abortion and recreational marijuana passing which more closely align with the positions of Democrats as well. Drilling down a bit further I identified four numbers I was watching as a key temperature check of the political mood of voters as we’re set to enter the 2024 election cycle.
The numbers were 5.1%, in Mississippi's governor’s race, 22 in New Jersey's state legislative races, 4 in Virginia’s state legislative races and 1 vote in Kentucky’s Governor’s race. What did the final results show?
- Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves won reelection by 4.5% (a margin that was slightly lower than four years ago)
- Democrats now have a 36-seat advantage in the New Jersey state legislature picking up 14 seats
- Democrats picked up 5 seats in the Virginia state legislature
- Andy Beshear won by 4.6% more than he won by four years ago
Upon further review, of the four biggest picture races, even the one that broke the Republican’s way still showed some ever-so-slight weakness (at least compared to four years ago). These are four different states and four sets of races and yet there’s a similar theme to them all. What’s become clear is that the Republican party’s messaging generally hasn't been effective, especially regarding the abortion issue in a post-Roe environment. Candidates, and the GOP generally, need to dedicate their focus to the issues that matter most to voters. The moment they bring up further restrictions on abortion, they lose.