The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Race – November 29th, 2023
Bottom Line: We’re now under a year away from Election Day and historically inside of a window in which eventual presidential primary winners have moved into front runner status in route to winning the party’s nomination. There have been few changes in the GOP presidential primary race over the past couple of weeks, however we have had the opportunity to see a small shakeout in the polls with the departures of Mike Pence and Tim Scott...however that hasn’t necessarily been good news for candidates not named Trump.
Former President Donald Trump’s polling lead was 39-points over his closest competition (Ron DeSantis) before the first debate, it’s currently 48-points. It's clear that Trump’s decision to skip the debates has worked out perfectly fine for him. Only one non-Trump candidate is polling higher than they were prior to the first debate is Nikki Haley who has been rising in early primary states. The former and perhaps future President of the United States continues to dominate the field of candidates.
Here's where the Republican primary candidates stand in the current average of national polls which also factor into debate eligibility (changes are compared to two weeks ago):
- Trump: 62% (+3)
- DeSantis: 14% (flat)
- Haley: 10% (+1)
- Ramaswamy: 5% (flat)
- Christie: 2% (-1)
- Burgum: 1% (flat)
- Hutchinson: 1% (flat)
What we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks is that Trump is shown as having gained the most support from the exiting of Pence and Scott from the race, as he’s now at a new polling high in this cycle. Nikki Haley has been the only other beneficiary of the candidate departures as she’s likewise at a new polling high in this cycle reaching double digits nationally for the first time.
National polls serve as temperature checks, however it’s what happens in individual states that determine the winner. Trump enjoys a current polling lead of 30-points in Iowa, 27-points in New Hampshire, 31-points in South Carolina and 38-points in Nevada. Notably Nikki Haley has surged past Ron DeSantis for the second position in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The race remains one that’s focused on who came emerge as the top non-Trump candidate in this race. Notably, Trump has a larger polling lead, by a wide margin, than any that’s been overcome by a candidate who’s gone on to win a party’s nomination. Trump’s support among GOP primary voters exceeds the level of support he had a year ago when only a few candidates were polled alongside him. The intrigue factor this week is tomorrow night’s non-GOP debate. A first-of-its kind “Red State – Blue State” debate between Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis and California Governor Gavin Newsom will be hosted by Sean Hannity tomorrow night. Will the non-GOP debate have the potential to impact the GOP presidential race? DeSantis, who desperately needs momentum heading into January, certainly hopes so.