Q&A of the Day – The 2024 Presidential Election Cycle
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio What election cycle does 2024’s most closely compare to as of now? Also please explain what’s happening with Trump ballot access.
Bottom Line: As we’re kicking off a new year, we’re already under two weeks away from the first votes of the 2024 presidential election cycle being cast as the Iowa Caucus is just two Mondays away. While there’s currently legal drama in Colorado and Maine regarding the former and perhaps future President of the United States having ballot access in the primary in those two states, and perhaps up to a dozen or so others with similar pending legal challenges, the only drama in Iowa will be the results of the Caucus itself (though as of this upcoming Friday, if the United States Supreme Court hasn’t ruled on the Colorado Supreme Court case which dumped Trump from ballots in the name of insurrection, he’ll appear on the Colorado ballots anyway – making Maine the only state where currently his name isn’t set to appear unless the Supreme Court overturns the decision in Maine which I fully expect that they will). In the context of discussing which election cycle this one most closely compares to, we’re already in unprecedented territory with the Democrat’s efforts across the country to attempt to keep the Republican frontrunner off of state’s ballots. But beyond the noise of those anti-Democratic legal efforts, there are several cycles with which we can compare this one to.
The comparisons for this cycle are twofold. First, from the perspective of a former President of the United States who’s running for reelection, and second from an incumbent President of the United States running for reelection. First let’s compare Donald Trump’s bid to those who’ve been president, lost reelection and attempted presidential comebacks.
- Founding Democrat Martin Van Buren was the first to attempt the feat after having lost his reelection bid in 1840. In 1844 he attempted a comeback, however he failed to win his party’s nomination. He later attempted an unsuccessful third-party comeback in the “Free Soil” party in 1848.
- Democrat Grover Cleveland was the next to attempt a presidential political comeback and unlike Van Buren was successful. Grover Cleveland was elected president in 1884, lost his reelection bid in 1888, however in a rematch with President Benjamin Harrison, Cleveland won once again in 1892, making him the only US president to successfully complete a presidential comeback.
- Republican Herbert Hoover is the third and most recent president to have attempted what Trump is attempting this cycle. Presiding over the onset of the Great Depression, Hoover lost a landslide election to FDR in 1932. Hoover attempted comebacks in 1936 and 1940 but failed to win the party’s nomination each time.
Some students of history might point towards unsuccessful comeback attempts by Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and Theodore Roosevelt; however, they’re not comps for this cycle as each left the presidency by choice, not because they lost an election, prior to attempting an unsuccessful comeback. So, if you’re looking to make your case from the Trump comeback perspective those would be the three comps. And between the three, the one that is least similar to where we are as a country today would be the first. Van Buren’s comeback was attempted prior to the establishment of the Republican Party and prior to the Civil War. You could make a case for either of the remaining two being the most comparative to this cycle, however the Hoover story is one of the Great Depression, which remains the worst economic event aside from the Civil War in US history, and World War II, which remains the most important war in modern world history. Given those catalysts, Grover Cleveland’s successful comeback attempt in 1892 would appear to have the most similarities at this point in the cycle. And then there’s the comparison from the incumbent president’s perspective.
All throughout Joe Biden’s presidency there’s been one name that consistently has come up the most. That’s Captain Peanut, aka, Jimmy Carter. A nice enough guy but a terrible president. As we’ve officially entered the presidential election year the number of similarities are uncanny.
- Both Biden and Carter are Democrats
- Jimmy Carter presided over the greatest inflation crisis in US history, Joe Biden has presided over the greatest inflation crisis since Jimmy Carter
- Both presided over recessions in their first term (the US did enter a technical recession in the first half of 2022)
- Both presidents were plagued by rising geopolitical risks and conflicts due to perceived weakness in leadership (including the Iranians specifically being squarely in the mix in both instances)
There are others but those frame the comparison well. The bottom line is that Joe Biden’s reelection bid is most similar to that of Jimmy Carter’s in 1980. And on that note, he’s actually now in a league of his own. Since the advent of the Gallup polling age in the 1930’s, Joe Biden has the lowest approval rating entering his reelection year of any president in history at 39%. To put that in perspective, it’s six points lower than President Trump’s approval rating at the same stage of his presidency. What’s more is that he retains a positive approval rating in only three states entering this year. Notably Jimmy Carter only won six states in 1980.
As always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. Those are the facts in this breakout. Notably in both of the top comparisons, the comparisons are good news for the former and perhaps future President of the United States. Though of course we’re in unprecedented territory with the four pending criminal cases against Trump currently scheduled to take place during the election cycle. Regardless, from my perspective, presidential elections, regardless of who the challenger may be are still mostly a referendum on the incumbent. The fact of the matter is that Trump was a heavy favorite and well positioned to win reelection prior to the impact of a 100-year pandemic. History suggests, whether we’re looking at the election in 1892 in the case of Trump’s attempted comeback, or in 1980 in terms of Biden’s presidential performance, that he’s well positioned to be able to win once again (or whomever the Republican nominee would be).