Q&A of the Day – Trump’s Ballot Access Case Before the Supreme Court
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio If Trump’s on the ballot in Colorado regardless of SCOTUS (ruling) on the challenge what difference does the case make?
Bottom Line: It’s a good question for multiple reasons. What happened in Colorado hasn’t stayed in Colorado and because specific to Colorado, there’s a difference in appearing on primary ballots as opposed to general election ballots. Let’s start with what the Colorado Supreme Court decision was mostly about...attempting to set a precedent which could be used by any states seeking to remove Trump from ballots in any future election, be it a state’s primary and/or an eventual general election. Maine became an instant example of this principle. When Maine’s Secretary of State chose to remove Trump from the state’s primary ballot, the Colorado Supreme Court ruling that Trump was guilty of “insurrection” was cited as the reason. This is important because Donald Trump had otherwise qualified on Maine’s primary ballot and because the Republican Party’s nominee for President automatically qualified for ballot access in all 50 states and in Washington D.C. (should Donald Trump become the Republican nominee as he’s currently favored to be). While no other states have yet taken the extraordinary step of having unelected officials opting to remove the former and perhaps future President of the United States from primary ballots...with the Iowa Caucus only a week away time is obviously of the essence as this case is considered.
As I mentioned last week, there was confusion with some about Trump appearing on Colorado’s primary ballot. If the Supreme Court didn’t rule on the Colorado Ballot access case by Friday, Donald Trump would be, and thus is, on Colorado’s primary ballot because the ballot deadline was Friday. The Colorado Supreme Court decision to strike Trump from the ballot was immediately stayed pending the appeal to the United States Supreme Court. What that meant was that by the Supreme Court not ruling that Trump will be on Colorado’s ballot before the deadline, he was included on the ballot. But as I also mentioned it’s still important for the Supreme Court to make a ruling sooner than later that would end the attempted drama over ballot access in individual states. First, different states have different deadlines for the final configuring of primary ballots, largely based on when on the calendar the primaries are set to take place. But bigger than primary ballot access is general election access.
While Donald Trump is on the Colorado primary ballot, and actually as of today would be in all 50 states including Maine, as the Maine decision has been stayed as well pending the appeal to the Maine Superior Court, the looming still bigger issue is general election ballot access. If, for example the Supreme Court allowed for the Colorado Supreme Court ruling to stand – Trump would appear on the state’s primary ballot but wouldn’t on the general election ballot should he be the Republican nominee. While the case is centered around primary ballot access, because that’s where we are in the election process, this case is really mostly about what may be in the general election. In the three state courts which dismissed/denied legal challenges to Trump’s ballot access – those rulings only applied to the primaries. What that means is that a second round of challenges could occur, with the possibility that a court would render a different decision in the general election. Take the ruling in a potentially pivotal state – Minnesota. In November the judge ruled in dismissing the case as noted by Law & Crime: Because the placing of Trump’s name on the Nov. 5, 2024, general election ballot is not “about to occur” and because there was “no error to correct here as to the presidential nomination primary,” the September petition was dismissed with a caveat. The petition was dismissed without prejudice, meaning it can be filed again, as to the general election claim that Trump should be barred from holding office under the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. And that’s the bigger ball of wax here. Strategically there’s been a thought in certain circles that some Democrat courts in states were playing coy – waiting for Trump to win the primary and then ruling that he’s not eligible for the general election ballot. As much as anything, that’s what the Colorado ballot access case before the Supreme Court is about.
While the Supreme Court could issue a narrow ruling limiting the scope of the impact of their decision to perhaps just the Colorado case, it’s much more likely the court in its ruling addresses the much bigger elephant in the room about primary and general election ballot access in all states. And that’s why the Colorado ballot case is that big of a deal despite the fact that Donald Trump’s name will appear on the ballot in the primary.