It’s Still (Mostly) About Florida & Trump’s (Likely) Not Immune - Top 3 Takeaways – January 10th, 2024
- It’s still (mostly) about Florida. For all the speculation, by usual suspects, that Governor DeSantis’ State of the State address would really be a message for frozen and snowed in Iowans, as opposed to Floridians, in advance of next Monday’s Iowa Caucus – as per usual they were (mostly) wrong. Yes DeSantis mentioned the Biden administration and crime, illegal immigration and general failures of Washington D.C., San Francisco, Illinois, California and New York before mentioning Florida in his address...which did have me wondering for the first minute and a half if this really was going to be a presidential stump speech as opposed to Florida’s State of State address...but once he mentioned Florida, the speech was all about Florida. And those other entities and locations were setups used to explain, as the governor said: It is not surprising that we have witnessed – and continue to witness – a great migration of Americans away from cities and states pursuing these failed policies, with Florida serving as a refuge for freedom and sanity. And as he said...in Florida, we’ve chosen facts over fear (in enacting public policy) and the results have been second to none. Yesterday, I highlighted all of the different categories in which Florida led the country last year – which was a lengthy list. Yesterday, in his address DeSantis once again highlighted more of the same. And because we never get tired of winning around here...Florida’s currently... #1 in education, #1 in education freedom, #1 for parental involvement in education, #1 for talent development, #1 for higher education, #1 for net domestic in-migration for the third consecutive year, #1 in new business formation, #1 in GDP growth among large states, and better than most countries in the world, #1 for entrepreneurship. We have the fewest state employees per capita (with even fewer on the way as DeSantis’ budget calls for a reduction of an additional 1,000 state employees), the lowest state government cost per capita, a 50-year low crime rate, and the lowest large state unemployment rate. And Florida's done it all with a balanced budget. As noted by the governor, the share of the national debt each American currently bears is $100,000. The share of state debt that Floridians share is only $661. So yeah, his address was (mostly) about Florida...what we’ve accomplished but also...
- Where we’re going. One of the questions to come out of Governor DeSantis’ State of the State address is whether he has the same juice with the legislature that’s he’s previously had that’s allowed for him to essentially accomplish his entire agenda to date. The answer based upon the way that he was received throughout the address is yes...DeSantis may not be viewed the same way nationally as he was a year ago based on poor presidential polling, and perceived mistakes in the way he’s run that campaign...but there was no indication that he’s a diminished figure in the state of Florida, at least as far as the legislature goes. For that reason, and with Republicans maintaining a super majority in Tallahassee, it’s likely we’ll see all of what the governor wants enacted once again. What that means is more tax cuts, often through the sales tax holidays we’ve grown accustomed to, in addition to tax cuts on homeowners' insurance products and tax cuts for small businesses. He’s calling for pay raises for teachers and first responders. He’s looking to increase funding for police recruitment campaigns as well. He wants to increase the level of funding for Everglades restoration, water quality, and to improve land conservation and our waterways. So yeah, his agenda is mostly to do more of what’s been working. When your state is #1 in so many ways – it would seemingly make sense. The biggest change in what he’s proposed and what he’s publicly advocating for is what I’ve covered in advance of the start of the session... Tax cuts on property and flood insurance products in an effort to provide a bit of savings, what I’ve figured to be about $200, while the reforms passed over the previous two state legislative sessions have time to take hold. This doesn’t mean the legislature won’t have their own agenda items that they pass his way. But what it does mean is that for the most part where Florida’s going, is the direction it’s been going. The affordability challenges are real, but are mostly a byproduct of record numbers of people wanting to be here because Florida is the best in so many ways. Speaking of Presidential candidates going places...
- Trump’s presidential immunity challenge is going nowhere. Yesterday the former and perhaps future President of the United States appeared in the D.C. Court of Appeals in an effort to press his challenge to pending criminal cases against him – asserting presidential immunity. As I answered in a recent Q&A, when asked about Trump’s legal prospects pertaining to the Supreme Court’s decision to take up the Colorado ballot access case, and the D.C. Appeals court hearing Trump’s assertion that he’s free from prosecution in the name of presidential immunity... The idea of Presidential Immunity as it exists today largely stems from the 1867 Supreme Court decision in Mississippi v. Johnson which stated: The Court had no jurisdiction . . . to enjoin the President in the performance of his official duties. Therefore, the legal precedent has been set that if a president is performing official duties, there’s legal immunity. If, however, it’s determined that he’s not conducting official business he could be held legally libel. I think it’s unlikely that the Supreme Court would make a ruling definitively stating that all of what Trump’s alleged by Jack Smith to have done would be considered official business without a trial having first played out establishing those facts. For that reason, I’d be surprised if the Supreme Court stepped in and essentially made most of Trump’s legal issues go away. So, my inclination is a yes, on ballot access and no on presidential immunity. After yesterday’s proceedings, with the three-judge panel taking an especially skeptical view in their line of questioning, a la this retort from George W. Bush appointed Judge Karen Henderson... I think it’s paradoxical to say that his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed allows him to violate criminal law. It’s quite clear that Trump’s effort to have his cases dismissed in the name of presidential immunity are going nowhere...which means, that at a minimum, it’s likely that the federal January 6th related case against him will move forward this year before the general election.