Trump & the Fatman - Top 3 Takeaways – January 12th, 2024
- Trump & the Fatman. Jake and the Fatman was a decent enough TV show, but for me the real gold in said TV show was in the clear political incorrectness of the name show and for that matter much of the humor within the show...especially in a window of time in the early 90’s when the term “political correctness” became a thing (following the October 1990 New York Times article introducing it). Anyway, the Fatman I’m referring to isn’t J.L. McCabe, but rather a real world version that’s equally entertaining in his own way. 1) Chris Christie does have a good sense of humor. He’s a naturally funny guy...independent of his girth. 2) What he accidentally did on his way out of the race with the hot mic was rather hilarious. After having delivered his final anti-Trump message as a presidential candidate, he immediately did in the candidate running closest to him in Nikki Haley when he was caught saying: She’s gonna get smoked. And you and I both know it. She’s not up to this. What this showed as much as anything is that Big Pun says a lot of stuff, but in reality, doesn’t necessarily believe in all of it. For that matter, as much as the Fatman has talked a big anti-Trump game right along, I’ve always had a hard time taking what he’s had to say at face value. Meaning that I'm not sure he really has believed it himself. That’s in part because the only time I’ve spent with Chris Christie just so happened to be in support of Donald Trump, with Donald Trump, at Mar-a-Lago when he was doing what he could to help get him elected in 2016. It’s rather well known that Chris Christie was angling for a meaningful role within the Trump administration, namely Attorney General, a role he served in New Jersey prior to becoming that state’s governor. But of course, that opportunity, nor for that matter, any opportunity was presented to the Notorious B.I.G. during the Trump administration. Trump himself has stated that’s why, he believes Christie turned against him. I’m inclined to believe him. While the internet is littered with examples of Chris Christie speaking out against Trump based on January 6th related matters, which has been the basis under which Christie has stated Trump’s unfit for office and why he’s turned against him...the fact of the matter is that Christie had been increasingly critical of Trump well before January 6th, perhaps as he realized, especially after Bill Barr was appointed as Trump’s second AG, that a Trump appointment wasn’t forth coming. Regardless, what the Cookie Monster said on a hot mic was revealing in more ways than one. And it also happened to be a rare uniting moment of late for the two Floridians in the race. The former and perhaps future President of the United States said it was “a very truthful statement” and Florida’s governor posted on X: I agree with Christie that Nikki Haley is ‘going to get smoked’.
- But will she? The counter point to what I said thus far about to the extent that he cares that Donald Trump not be elected is belied by the timing of Christie’s dropout. Many have wondered what’s up with Christie’s timing. Many presidential candidates never make it to Iowa. That much isn’t unusual. But what is unusual, in fact I can’t recall another example of this having ever happened, is for a candidate with at least some measurable support running all the way up to Iowa, literally just a few days away from the Caucus before calling it a day. But in reality, if his goal really is to attempt to have someone knock Trump off this makes perfect sense. One of the biggest mistakes, and worst assumptions, of the pre-primary and caucus season in certain circles (especially legacy news media circles), was that Trump’s polls effectively reflected the extent of his primary support. What many discounted is that someone for example could be a Tim Scott voter first, but if he’s not an option a Trump voter instead. What we’ve seen is that as ankle bitter candidates exited the race in recent months (no offense meant to the ankle bitters, it’s just the reality), Trump’s effectively consolidated almost all of their support. That’s why Trump’s peaking with his highest polling margins to date nationally and in Iowa in advance of the caucus. The only other candidate who has been rising alongside Trump is the woman who Christie said would get smoked. But Nikki’s fortunes haven’t largely risen as a result of ankle bitters dropping. Nikki’s fortunes have slowly risen precisely and consistently with DeSantis’ slow and steady decline. DeSantis’ campaign drain has been Haley’s gain. But Christie’s supporters are different than those of the other yappy dogs who’ve exited the race. They’re non-Trumpers for sure. Recent polls nationally and in New Hampshire have showed that 0% of Chris Christie’s supporters would move to Trump if he exited the race. The overwhelming beneficiary – Nikki Haley. Based upon the poll you look at, Haley gets Christie’s supporters by anywhere from a 24 to 1 margin on the high end to a 4 to 1 margin on the low end. It’s clear that Nikki Haley’s best opportunity to finish as the top non-Trump candidate in Iowa comes without Christie in the race. And given that out of the early primary and caucus states, one’s where there’s been regular polling, Iowa has been where DeSantis has been best performing – if Haley takes DeSantis for 2nd place, it’s hard to see the path forward for Florida’s governor. That’s what the timing of Christie’s dropout appears to be about. A potential killshot aimed at DeSantis’ campaign (which makes it all that much funnier that the Fatman immediately did in Haley on a hot mic). But in the end will it really matter?
- It could and in two ways. First in Iowa, if Haley does in fact pull out second place in the caucus giving her campaign additional momentum ahead of the state where she’s polling best – New Hampshire. And that’s where it would have the potential to matter most. For a matter of many months, effectively about the time it appeared that DeSantis’ campaign had peaked before he officially had entered the race, the Republican nomination process has had a feeling of inevitability about it. That only grew as Trump stayed above the fray and out of the debates and rose in the polls in the process. There’s only one way to stop that feeling, and to halt that narrative. And that’s for someone to beat Trump somewhere. And that somewhere, if it’s going to happen anywhere in time to make the race at least interesting, is New Hampshire. Trump has never averaged more than 47% support, in the second state to vote, and while he’s peaking in the polls in other places, he’s currently pacing just 43% in the Granite State. Haley meanwhile is currently peaking with 29%. And as for Big Pun, he had 12% support in New Hampshire. If Christie’s supporters are now Haley’s supporters, you can do the math. New Hampshire, by way of polling at least, is now a dead heat. If Trump could be knocked off in the first primary state, with Haley’s home state set to vote next...things would get a little interesting. So yeah, Christie exiting the race, and the timing of the race, very well could matter in shaping the outcomes in both Iowa and New Hampshire at a minimum. That is if the Fatman didn’t smoke out Haley’s chances of capturing his supporters with his hot mike.