How President Biden’s Mental State Has Changed the Race
Bottom Line: In my takeaways yesterday, I mentioned that we’ll know what this country is made by the end of the week, based in part on what President Biden’s approval rating is by the end of the week. Special Prosecutor Robert Hur’s classified documents report ripped the cover off what was widely known by those who’ve been paying attention. The President of the United States isn’t mentally fit to do the job. That makes the prospect of his desire to remain President of the United States for another four years that much more dire in the eyes of many voters. Now that President Biden’s mental state has become a mainstream conversation with credible coverage across the news media landscape, we’ll quickly have an idea regarding how many supporters of President Biden put their political preferences above the interests of the country. We’ll have a better idea by the end of this week of where the country stands. Already though, we have an idea of how it’s perceived to have impacted the Presidential race this year based on what’s changed in the political betting markets.
In an average of all betting markets Donald Trump has been favored over Joe Biden to win the 2024 presidential election. However, what’s generally been a tight line between the two has opened to the widest margin of the race for either candidate in this cycle. According to the betting markets prior to Special Prosecutor Robert Hur’s report depicting the poor state of President Biden’s memory and President Biden’s botched presser addressing it, Trump’s implied odds of winning the presidential election were 10% higher than Biden’s (43% to 33%). In the few days since the data drop and related fallout, Trump’s advantage in the betting markets has grown to 18% over Biden – with Donald Trump now priced with a 45% chance of winning the presidency compared with Joe Biden falling to just 27%. What this illustrates is that while Biden is still the odds-on favorite of being the Democrat’s nominee for president, there’s a much greater belief that he won’t be the Democrat’s nominee. That’s due to Trump’s odds rising by 2% while Biden’s fell by 7%. There are two notable takeaways from this analysis that are potentially important in the court of public perception going forward. President Biden’s cited metal state has had a more negative impact in the minds of bettors and line makers, than all of Donald Trump’s indictments did. That could be key should former President Trump be criminally convicted in one or more criminal cases before the election this year.
BetOnline.ag conducted a social media study of the impact of the Biden news drop by state. The states expressing the most concern is potentially telling in a broader context. Two of the most concerned states are reliably red states in presidential elections in Kentucky and West Virginia – so there’s unlikely to be a difference in election outcomes with those two. However, the other state that’s among the most concerned could potentially decide the election – Michigan. It’s a bit of an oversimplification but if Donald Trump wins Michigan in November, it’s a safe bet that he’ll be the next President of the United States. Other potential swing states with above average concern include Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Florida also happens to be among the most concerned about President Biden’s metal acuity as well.