The Trump Organization & The 2nd Business Exodus to Florida & What This County Is Made Of - Top 3 Takeaways
- Welcome to Florida. Wall Street South has always been open for business, and most specifically in terms of my top takeaway today, open for businesses to relocate even during the peak of the pandemic. It’s been said that whatever trends were in place preceding the pandemic they advanced by about a decade during it. That certainly held true regarding Florida’s incredible success in attracting new businesses into the state. What had been a slow but steady flow of business relocations from high tax blue cities in blue states turned into a firehose of activity after COVID lockdowns in those locations took place. All told, between 2020 and 2023 a total of 56 New York City based businesses relocated to Florida – with most relocating to South Florida. Hence the emergence of the nickname Wall Street South. In total New York City has lost businesses with a total market value of over $1 trillion. And NYC’s pain has been Florida’s gain. It’s pretty remarkable to think that just one city could lose 56 businesses to a state that’s over a thousand miles away but that’s exactly what’s happened. But what comes next could be just as, if not more dramatic. Last Friday’s unprecedented decision by a New York judge, in former President Donald Trump’s civil fraud case, to impose fines totaling $355 million dollars and to bar the Trump Organization from conducting business within the state for three years, is set to have an effect that’s chiller than the weather up there for businesses. Never before had a business been fined $1 without there having been a victim, let alone $355 million and three years without operation of a business. While the Trump team is set to appeal the decision, it’s likely businesses which had been on the fence about leaving New York for warmer and friendlier bastions will be off that fence and coming our way. The cost of living in South Florida, despite not being cheap, is currently 62% lower than New York City and infinitely better for operating a business. A headline to a Fox News story over the weekend said it all: Trump's penalty could cause NY biz exodus to FL, as New York State becomes 'legal banana republic': experts. And by the way, the first major enterprise to relocate to Florida from New York City specifically, due to the political targeting of said banana republic, is the Trump Organization itself. So welcome to Florida for all of the New York businesses who’re soon to be part of the second exodus from the city and the state that’s rapidly becoming a self-created cesspool.
- Who we are. It was just over a week ago that I said this about what last week would represent on the back of the drop of the special prosecutor’s report revealing the extent of President Biden’s mental decline and his subsequent presser illustrating it... Once you know you can’t unknow. the question now isn’t about President Biden’s waning mental abilities it’s about whether ours as a society are too. This week is about us as a country. President Biden was already a historically unpopular president with only Jimmy Carter having had a lower approval rating on the same date in his presidency. The question is what happens now. Preceding Thursday’s reveal that President Biden’s cognitive decline is so severe that he effectively isn’t fit to stand trial, President Biden’s average approval rating was 40.1%. The biggest tell for me about this country is what it’ll be after this week. I’ve marveled right along at voters who’ve taken a look at Joe Biden after historic geopolitical failures that have contributed to terrorists taking over Afghanistan, the first European ground invasion since World War II, the biggest mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust, 40+ year high inflation, the worst economic record since Jimmy Carter – with the average American 3% worse off financially than they were the day that Joe Biden become President of the United States, etc. But then turn around and say – yes I approve of that guy’s performance...give me some more of that sweet Joe Biden political action. Given the broad and generally accurate coverage of the revelations across the media landscape we’re now in a situation to where even as Rush would have said “low information voters”, know. And once you know that President Biden’s mind is effectively a dog that won’t hunt... You can’t unknow that. So, what is this country made of? We should have a pretty good idea by the end of the week. So, let's go to the scorecard, shall we?
- Who we appear to be. The news drop about Biden’s brain happened February 8th. For this exercise I’m only interested in polling samples taken completely after the news reveal. There are four national polls that fit that timeline, so what do they say about President Biden that’s every bit as revealing about us? We are who we were. The average across those four polls is the same as in their previous polls before the data drop. Also, the RealClear Politics average across all polls at 40.1%, is exactly as it was on the day the data dropped. What this suggests is two things. First, evidently President Biden’s supporters already had assumed that Biden’s brain was as out to lunch as it has been disclosed to be and simply don’t care (I was willing to provide them with the benefit of the doubt). Second, effectively four out of ten adults appear to be beyond the point of rationality or reason. It’s but one more reason I’m thrilled to live in the Free State of Florida where far more people get it than not. President Biden’s approval rating in our state has dropped from 34% to 33% since he informed us that Egypt’s president is Mexico’s too. In total President Biden maintains net positive approval in only three states so at least most people do get it, though that four out of ten still don’t makes you go hmm... That’s who we appear to be as a country and as a state. Mostly still sensible albeit with a significant contingent that suffer from long-term TDS, that’s apparently clouded their ability to effectively reason. Perhaps it’s a lingering side effect double masking and endless COVID boosting? Hard to tell.