The National Hurricane Center’s New Tools & Dueling Border Policies - Top 3 Takeaways – February 23rd' 2024
- The National Hurricane Center’s new tools. In recent years each new hurricane season has brought about a bunch of new tools along with what’s proven to be much better accuracy in hurricane forecasting. As we know technological advances come fast these days and so too do the NHC’s tweaks and changes to storm forecasting. Over the past three years the National Hurricane Center has achieved record forecast accuracy with today’s five-day hurricane forecasts proving to be as accurate as two-day forecasts 30 years ago and a total improvement in forecast accuracy of 75%. That’s also led to an ever-shrinking forecast cone. But with a smaller forecast cone there have become additional concerns from hurricane forecasters that those who aren’t in the direct path of a hurricane, but that still stand to feel significant effects, might not fully appreciate the potential risk they face. That’s led to the National Hurricane Center creating a new “experimental cone graphic” for this year’s hurricane season. The big change that will come with this new graphic is inland wind advisories. While using 2022’s Hurricane Ian as a guide, the NHC highlighted how the advisories approaching landfall would have been different. Notably and helpfully, this includes specifically where the risk of hurricane force winds ended and tropical storm force winds begin. For example, had this new cone been in place, the National Hurricane Center’s graphic would have illustrated that there wasn’t a risk of hurricane force winds to the east of Lake Okeechobee as Hurricane Ian approached landfall. The information presented won’t be different but the visualization of it will be. According to the NHC that new cone will be in play “on or around August 15th" - though hopefully we won’t have a chance to see it in action this year. But that’s not all that will be changing this year. The National Hurricane Center is also adopting a new policy of issuing watches and warnings through its intermediate advisories. If you’re a veteran hurricane tracker, as most Floridians are, you’re likely aware that advisories come in two typical types, “intermediate” and “full”, with full advisories dropping at 5 & 11 (AM & PM) and intermediate advisories dropping at 8 & 2 (AM & PM). Aside from the rare issuance of a “special” advisory, major advisory and forecast path changes occur during full advisories. That will no longer be the case with forecasters using intermediate advisories to issue the more significant forecast advisory changes as they see fit. This will aid in getting better advisory information out sooner. You likely know how long six hours can feel when you can see that there’s a hurricane making a significant wobble right now. And speaking of changes to advisories, there will be more of them issued further in advance. The Hurricane Center is extending their window for issuing tropical storm watches and warnings up to five days in advance of the potential impact of them – up from three days previously. And while top wind speeds and the category of a hurricane tends to gain the most attention, it’s the impact of water that usually causes the most death and damage. On that note the NHC is also adding an experimental rainfall graphic for their advisories too. Similar to the new cone graphic, the rainfall graphic will highlight especially high rainfall totals on a map to more easily see areas that are at the highest risk for excessive rain. So hopefully there’s not a need for the Hurricane Center to break out their new tools, but if there is that’s what you can expect. Better information that’s delivered faster and that’s easier to see and understand.
- It’s not complicated. Recently there have been rumblings that President Biden might do what he’d previously spent three years lying about not being able to do. Use executive actions to crackdown on illegal immigration across his open border. On January 20th, 2021 – the first day Joe Biden was president, he signed an executive order to end the construction of the southern border wall. On January 20th, 2021 – the first day Joe Biden was president, he signed an executive order to end President Trump’s “remain in Mexico” policy. On February 2nd, 2021- just twelve days into his presidency, Joe Biden signed the executive order mandating border patrol shift priorities from border security to processing and relocating asylum seekers into the interior. The current border crisis was literally ordered by President Biden starting within the first few hours he was on the job. All he’s ever had to do to stop the crisis is to reinstate the orders he struck down. While it remains to be seen what Biden will decide to do to backtrack on his devastating border policies, if anything – he has a bunch of pressure to maintain the status quo on the left... There remains the other issue that’s also not complicated. What should be done with those that are already here. Yesterday Sinclair Media polled the most straight forward question I’ve ever seen on the topic of deportation and the answer was as clear as it is obvious. Their question: Should people who cross the US border illegally be deported? The answer – 97% of respondents said yes. Yet with millions of illegal immigrants entering annually under Biden’s open border, how many are being deported? Only 142,500 over the past year. We have significantly more illegal border crossers in a month than total deportations in a year. And no, asylum seekers aren’t here legitimately. Over 97% are found to be nothing more than illegal immigrants scamming the system. There aren’t many issues 97% of people can agree on. And no, no matter what Joe Biden does or doesn’t decide to do with our southern border...
- You know he’s not going to do what needs to be done to credibly deport those he’s already let in. But a future President Trump on the other hand? His promised mass deportation event upon becoming president isn’t just the appropriate thing for a president to do, it’s an overwhelmingly politically popular thing for him to do which runs counter to most of the media coverage of it a la this from the Washington Post yesterday... Trump has made similar promises and has used inflammatory smears since his 2016 campaign. But he, his aides and allies say a second turn in office would be more effective in operating the levers of the federal bureaucracy and less vulnerable to internal resistance. During his term, former officials said, Trump learned to install more officials at the Department of Homeland Security who would carry out his orders instead of trying to curb his impulses. While advisers agree on border security, building a wall on the southern border and deporting migrants who have committed crimes after entering the country as winning political issues, one adviser expressed concern that promising to deport massive numbers of people who haven’t been convicted of a crime could hurt Trump in a general election campaign. Umm...false. You don’t have to be “convicted” of being an illegal immigrant. If you’re not here legally you’re an illegal immigrant. It’s not complicated, and it obviously is a political winner for Trump too, no matter how some try to spin it.