Weekend Wins & Historic Political Change Is Here- Top 3 Takeaways – March 4th, 2024
- It’s happening. Fresh off a sweep of three presidential nominating contests on Saturday – which featured Trump’s largest victories over Nikki Haley to date, came Nikki Haley’s first win of the nomination season in Washington D.C.’s primary Sunday. The delegate count in advance of today’s North Dakota caucus is still heavily one-sided with Donald Trump exiting the weekend with a 247-43 advantage. However, Haley desperately needed a win to retain credibility in the race in the minds of many voters and she got it ahead of Super Tuesday. Otherwise, Haley made news, and further fueled speculation about a potential No Labels bid, when she stated she no longer felt bound by her loyalty pledge to support the Republican candidate for president because the Republican Party isn’t the same as it was went she signed it (referring to Ronna McDaniel’s exit as GOP Chair following tomorrow’s elections). But beyond those storylines there’s one that’s even bigger coming out of the weekend. Trump’s support among young voters has never been higher. There are two major calls I’ve made in my career that have led to even the most loyal listeners questioning my sanity, or at a minimum, wondering if my work as an analyst had taken a wrong turn. The first was my call back in the mid-2000's, that I’d repeated countless times over the past decade, plus in which I said: “one day South Florida will save this country from itself”. Most on the right who talked to me about that position thought that given the demographics of South Florida I’d lost my mind. That’s because at the time South Florida was the Democrat’s “blue wall” within the state and it was trending ever bluer due to the changing demographics within the state. Notably, the ever-rising Hispanic/Latino population. But what I noticed at the time was that as the Democrat Party continued to turn ever farther left – they were leaving that constituency behind. Not just economically but especially socially where the values of the average Hispanic family in South Florida are the most conservative. I knew at the time that all it would take for a permanent political shift would be leadership on the right that respected their values and that would create policies to improve their lives. The combination of a Trump presidency and DeSantis governorship created the realization of that vision. The Washington Post Story from 2021 entitled: Demographics were expected to push Florida left. Instead, they nudged it to the right. Florida is home to expanding metros such as Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville. Almost half of Floridians are people of color, and the state’s population is increasing. Yet Florida voted for Donald Trump twice, sent two Republicans to the Senate and elected a string of Republican governors. The story went on to explain the conservative turn of Florida’s Hispanic and Latino voters as central to what’s happened within our state. But importantly, the story goes on to explain how only Mexicans, among Hispanic/Latino constituencies nationally have remained loyal to Democrats. Fast forward to what I brought you two weeks prior to Florida’s 2022 midterm elections in my takeaways that day: I’ve long said one day South Florida would save this country from itself because immigrants here know what socialism is, as they’ve lived it. This is the election cycle where it can all come together. The cycle where Floridians begin to save this country from itself by converting a record Republican voter registration advantage into electing record numbers of Republicans up and down the ballot, all while rejecting leftist local government efforts to raise our already extraordinarily high taxes still further. Miami-Dade and Palm Beach County broke for Democrats two years ago by the smallest margins in each counties' history. If either county were to flip this cycle – the message would be heard well beyond South Florida.
- This election cycle can be the beginning of exporting the freedom we’ve enjoyed across the country and saving it from those who’ve most recently taken it for granted. In the grand scheme of political analysis, I’ve provided over the past three decades, that call, which was over a decade in the making, ranks up there with the very best. But enter my most recent head turning call. I first made it on October 22nd of 2021, in that day’s takeaways. As I said at the time: For as long as I’ve studied politics there’s been one consistent truism. The youngest voters are those most likely to support Democrats. Typically, it takes family formation and career development (paying taxes) to open the eyes of the previously idealistic kids. I’ve literally never seen anything to the contrary until now. But this is different and something huge is happening here. President Biden’s approval ratings are now worst youngest. This means there’s...A generational opportunity for Republicans. Most recently the topic, in the first show of the year I said this: The youngest voters, which until somewhat recently appeared as though they might be the hardest left generation of voters the country has seen, appear to be course correcting politically. They’re looking for freedom. Financial and otherwise. A second coming of the Reagan revolution has quietly been playing out in Florida. The opportunity exists to do the same nationally as well with young voters across the country who are the most displeased with President Biden of any demographic group. And yes, as we’ve already seen, the former and perhaps future President of the United States can carry the Reagan torch – having been the most effective president this country had since Ronald Reagan. Yes, some of the youngest voters are unhappy with Biden because he’s not “leftist” enough for them, however Florida’s example suggests there are far more that are simply looking for good leadership that leads to better results for them. That’s where generational opportunity exists and perhaps has never been greater in modern political history. It’s most likely that a Floridian will not only be the Republican nominee for president, but that a Floridian will have the opportunity to Make America Great Again and/or to Make America Florida, starting in January of 2025. 2023’s off election year brought about as much subtle change in the electorate as I’ve studied during the course of my 25+ year career. I’m optimistic about what the future holds. This year will be the most important and pivotal new year of our lives.
- This is the year. My two long term demographic calls, that one day South Florida would save this country from itself due to diversifying demographics, not in spite of them...and that young voters will be a huge part of the political solution – not the catalyst to cataclysm...are coming together this year. As we’re now just eight months away from Election Day consider this voter analysis insight from Fox News dropped over the weekend: In a potential rematch, the survey finds Trump receives 49% support while Biden gets 47%. Trump’s advantage comes from record or near-record support among key Democratic groups, while maintaining strong support among his own constituencies. Trump has significant support among voters under age 30 (51%), with near-record support among Hispanics (48%). Now, even as recently as two years ago, show of hands, how many thought that with eight months to go before Election Day, Donald Trump would poll with majority support among voters under the age of 30? How many thought that Trump would not only show majority support with the youngest voters but that also he would be leading President Biden head-to-head with Hispanic/Latino voters as well? But here we are with the cycle where it’s all starting to happen. This is the year for demographic and generational political change across this country. And it’s the change within those groups that will save this country from itself come November.