Trump’s Record Setting Win, Nikki’s Next Steps & Democrat Desperation in Florida - Top 3 Takeaways – March 7th, 2024
- Message received. There are two sides to stories and one side to facts. The media/Nikki Haley narrative had been that there’s a large swath of Republicans who don’t want Donald Trump and therefore the country at large certainly doesn’t either. The facts of the matter are these. The former and perhaps future President of the United States just won a presidential primary at a rate that’s never been achieved before, and Donald Trump just delivered the most decisive win by a non-incumbent president in American history. While essentially clinching the Republican nomination for president with Nikki Haley dropping out of the race following Super Tuesday, Donald Trump accomplished two things that have never been done before. Never before has a former Republican president made a successful comeback until now. It had been attempted by two previous presidents – Theodore Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover (multiple times) - however in all instances they failed to win the Republican Party nomination again after existing the presidency. Trump has now done what Roosevelt and Hoover were unable to do but, in the process, he managed to do what no presidential candidate in either party has been able to do. Donald Trump’s pledged delegate win rate through the contested portion of the nomination season was 91%. That’s the highest pledged delegate win rate by a non-incumbent president in either party in American history. That’s even more impressive when you consider that there were concerted efforts by some (Nikki Haley among them) to turn out NPA and Democrat voters to vote against Trump in states with open primaries. The spun narratives about Republicans rejecting Trump couldn’t be further from the truth in a historical context. Republican voters wanted Donald Trump more than they’ve ever wanted another candidate for president, who wasn’t already the sitting president.
- Nikki’s not unifying...at least yet. I’m not sure how many people would have expected Mitch McConnell to endorse Donald Trump for president prior to Nikki Haley, but that’s exactly what happened yesterday. Nikki’s speech in exiting the race fit the expression that it’s best to be brief, be brilliant and be gone. It was short, it was sweet, and it was gracious. What it wasn’t was a speech that included an endorsement of Donald Trump – someone she’d pledged to support – having previously signed a loyalty pledge to the party’s nominee. Most importantly for Donald Trump though – what it also wasn’t was a speech that left the door open for a potential third-party presidential run. In recent weeks Nikki’s equal criticisms of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, combined with No Label’s expressing public interest in her leading their ticket, fueled speculation that she might be tempted to make an independent run. Her concession speech, in which she congratulated Trump, stated that she wants Trump to work to win over her support and that of her supporters. That’s not something you say if you’re running for president a different way. If Mitch McConnell has come around Nikki likely will in time too. Speaking of Nikki’s...
- Democrat desperation is setting in, in Florida. Maybe nationally too for that that matter, however Republicans don’t exactly have their act together across the country...as the party is undergoing a leadership change today with Ronna McDaniel stepping down...quoting Donald Trump on the topic “we’re getting rid of the Romneys of the world (notably Ronna McDaniel is Mitt Romney’s niece and Mitt Romney is not running for reelection in the Senate)...but back to what’s going on in Florida. Following a record blowout defeat in the 2022 midterm elections Florida’s Democrats opted for a leadership change opting for Nikki Fried, who has a proclivity for weed. It’s safe to say her reign atop Florida’s Democrat Party hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. In year one under her leadership Florida’s Republican Party grew its voter registration advantage by an additional 395,747 voters. A stunning number in any year but that much more poignant considering that it wasn’t even an election year – which usually is the catalyst for massive voter registration shifts. What’s more is that the biggest gains for Republicans haven’t been coming from Florida’s conservative stronghold’s but rather what historically have been the bluest counties in the state. Most notably South Florida’s TriCounty. Since January of 2023 Broward County – the bluest in the state – has seen the Democrat’s advantage over Republicans drop by 72,404 voters. In Miami Dade, the Democrat voter registration advantage over Republicans is down by 53,533 voters over the same time. And in Palm Beach County Republicans are 46,398 voters closer to Democrats than they were before. This has led to Democrat desperation setting in as Nikki Fried has taken the extraordinary step of suspending three party leaders at the county level. In Palm Beach County Mindy Koch is out. In Miami Dade Robert Dempster has been tossed into the dumpster and in Franklin County, Carol Barfield has been shown the door. In making the announcement Fried said: The actions taken today are part of an overall strategy to get our local parties back on track. Now these decisions weren’t knee jerk reactions by Nikki. Without getting into the weeds of local party politics outstanding complaints about these three had been lingering over the past year. But what is interesting is that the Democrat Party official who presided over the biggest loss of voters within the state over the past year is still left standing. This brings up the larger point. However effective or ineffective these now suspended local Democrat Party leaders may be, the biggest issue isn’t them and it isn’t Nikki specifically either (though she represents the epitome of the problem Democrats have in this state). It’s the party itself and what it stands for.