Q&A – What Is the Impact of The Antisemitic College Protests on the 2024 Elections?
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio Surely most people see these wackadoo college protests for what they are & Biden’s weakness to deal with this issue for what it is? Think it’ll have an impact on the elections this year similar but different to what BLM did in 2020?
Bottom Line: Conceptually I do think there are many similarities between the Marxist BLM movement of 2020 and current antisemitic movement (under the guise of being “pro-Palestinian” which is one in the same). There are a small number of highly motivated organizers behind these movements which attracted larger numbers of at least somewhat ignorant people to join their movement because they see it as the socially righteous thing to do. In attempting to determine what the potential political impact may be as a result of the antisemitic chaos on college campuses this year, it’s first helpful to look back at the BLM example you’ve cited from the 2020 election.
Before diving into an analysis it’s worth pointing out that there were so many oddities associated with the 2020 Presidential election, due to the pandemic, that it’s hard to say that for any certain sect of voters there was only one issue in play. With that said, it’s fair to say that the rise of the BLM movement following the killing of George Floyd played a role in increasing Black voter turnout specifically. However, the impact may not necessarily have been as big as many perceived it to be.
Black voter turnout in the 2016 election:
Black voter turnout in the 2020 election:
We saw Black voter participation increase by only 3.4 percent in 2020. However, while the increase in participation was somewhat small, the impact on election outcomes potentially wasn’t. 93% of Black voters in 2020 voted for Joe Biden for President, and generally Democrats down ballot as well. There are two states won by Joe Biden that appear to have been won based on the small increase in Black voter turnout alone. Arizona, won by Joe Biden by only 10,457 votes and Georgia, which he won by 11,779 votes. It wasn’t enough to flip the presidential election, Joe Biden would have won even without Arizona and Georgia, however it was potentially enough to flip the United States senate. Notably, at least one of Georgia’s senate races (David Purdue’s race against Jon Ossoff) likely would have been won by Republicans had it not been for the increase in Black voter turnout in 2020 – and on Election Day – not requiring a runoff meaning Republicans would currently have at least 50 seats in the Senate. In looking at the implications for what we’re seeing play out this year, here are some current facts to consider.
According to the most recent Harvard-Harris polling on the topic of support for Israel over the weekend, voters support Israel over Hamas in their war by an 80% to 20% margin. While I still find it somewhat mindboggling that approximately a fifth of Americans support a terrorist organization in their desire to eradicate Israel, it’s clear where the overwhelming majority of voters come down on this issue. Now, obviously 80% of voters this November won’t be voting for Trump because he’s the stronger supporter of Israel, or potentially Republicans down ballot as for what may be similar considerations, so some serious contextualizing is in order.
The fact of the matter is that while there may be some people who see what’s happening with antisemitism on college campuses, and in other aspects of society, and will consider changing their vote as a result...most won’t. It’s an understatement to say that most people aren’t single issue pro-Israel voters. In fact, I’ve not seen evidence that there are measurable numbers of single-issue pro-Israel Jewish voters. My point is this. It’s unlikely that the broad support for Israel, even if it maintains at current levels into November, will translate into many changed votes from four years ago. The key may not be with who’s voting but instead who opts not to vote instead.
In yesterday’s Q&A on the rise of antisemitism I brought you this: As older, more faithful generations of Americans pass on, they’re being replaced in society with younger generations of adults who’re far less likely to believe in a higher power and that would appear to be the crux of what’s in play with the antisemitic protests on college campuses, record antisemitic incidents in our society and numerous other issues of violence in schools and society generally. The younger vote specifically is where there’s potentially going to be an impact. What could happen this year with the rise of antisemitism on college campuses is a reverse of what happened with BLM in 2020. Rather than the issue driving more people to polls, it could cause many to not go to the polls this year.
For leftwing antisemitic activists who don’t think President Biden or university presidents are doing enough to crack down on Israel, if they don’t want to vote for Joe Biden, they’re most certainly not going to vote for Donald Trump. The most likely outcome is that some of them just don’t vote (or perhaps go third party – notably Green Party Presidential candidate Jill Stein was arrested at one of the protests over the weekend – she could become the candidate of choice for the radical antisemites which would be ironic given that she’s of Jewish ancestry).
In 2020 there was an 11% increase in voter turnout for voters between the ages of 18-29. They broke for Joe Biden by a 25-point margin. The increase in the youth vote in 2020 over 2016 and the margin in which they broke for Joe Biden, was enough for Biden to flip Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania – which of course made the difference in the presidential election. I suspect we likely will see a decline in voter turnout from the 18-29 demographic this year. For some it will be the economy. For others it may be Israel. And as for the potential impact? We obviously won’t know until we get there.