Crowd Size Matters – Trump's Record Setting Rally in New Jersey - Top 3 Takeaways – May 13th, 2024
- 2016. What happened in New Jersey over the weekend felt a lot like 2016. 80,000 to 100,000 people showing up for a political rally? Virtually unheard of. 80,000 to 100,000 people (according to the AP estimate – some have said the actual number could have exceeded 100k) at a venue that the city’s mayor said could only hold 40,000? Remarkable. 80,000 to 100,000 people showing up for a political rally for Trump in the blue state of New Jersey amid Trump’s New York state documents case? That’s a potentially defining statement in this election year and perhaps is a sign of what’s to come in November. In 2016 Donald Trump set a political record with a total of 323 campaign rally events across the country within his first year as a presidential candidate each seemingly building on the next. Quick trivia question. How many people attended Trump’s first ever campaign rally? The answer – 300 at the Manchester Community College in Manchester, New Hampshire in July of 2015. Things changed a bit from that point forward. Still, the largest estimated crowd of that primary season topped out at 29,000 in Clevland. By the general election cycle in 2016, 15k+ had become the norm for a Trump rally in route to the victory that didn’t shock his supporters but did shock the political establishment, media establishment and most of the world. Trivia time, what was the largest Trump rally recorded during the 2016 election cycle for Donald Trump? The answer – a high-end estimate of 50,000 people. It’s well known that the former and perhaps future President of the United States has a penchant for exaggeration. Such as saying during that 2016 Presidential election cycle that he’d drawn larger crowds than any presidential candidate had ever drawn. Had you added them together that most certainly would have been the case (an estimated 1.4 million Americans attended a Trump rally during the 2016 presidential election cycle). However, at a single venue Trump hadn’t drawn the most of all-time at a single event – he was #3 all-time. Trivia time... which two presidential candidates had drawn a larger crowd than Donald Trump prior to this weekend’s event? The answer – FDR who drew 120,000, also in New Jersey, in 1932. Who was number 2?
- 2008. The big ‘O. In 2008, in St. Louis, in late October just prior to the presidential election, Barack Obama drew a crowd that attracted an estimated...80,000 to 100,000 people. Now obviously, when it comes to presidential politics size matters when it comes to votes being cast, not campaign rallies. While we’ll never know how many people would have shown up at Trump rallies in 2020 had it not been for the pandemic, it’s safe to say that Trump would have had crowds that would have been multiples larger than any Joe Biden would have had. But then again, it’s also probably safe to say that had it not been for the pandemic Trump would have been reelected. But here’s the point. While crowd size at a campaign event in May only matters to the extent that a lot of people were excited to show up to a Trump rally in New Jersey in May...
- We have historically seen a connection between outsized enthusiasm for presidential candidates resulting in outsized victories. In 1932 when FDR drew what still remains as the largest crowd for a campaign event in history, he went on to win the election over incumbent President Herbert Hoover 472 to 59 (in the Electoral College). In 2008 when Barack Obama drew what had been the second largest crowds in political history, he went on to win the election 365 to 173. In 2016, when Donald Trump drew the third largest known crowds in presidential history, he won 304 to 227. Is commonality across three presidential election cycles a small sample size? Yes. But has crowd size within those three cycles been predictive of the election outcome? Yes. And was it the case that each of the margins of victories in the three examples corresponded to the rank of the crowd size? Yes. So, in the context of 2024 that’s at least interesting. So is this. As of my most recent Anatomy of a Swing State update last Wednesday, I showed Trump appearing to have a current 312 to 226 vote advantage – a margin of victory that’s slightly larger than his 2016 win as I’m currently showing the former and perhaps future President of the United States in position to carry the states he did in 2016 plus Nevada. That’s also interesting to me because what we’ve seen historically, and what we’re seeing currently, are all congruent. Election Day is now under six months away which also makes the enthusiasm for Trump a bit more relevant as well. History suggests that Donald Trump is well positioned to turn his historic crowd size into historic votes in November. And if Donald Trump can turnout close to 100,000 in New Jersey, a state he lost by 16-points in the previous election, imagine what that might mean. Trump said at the rally: We’re going to officially play in the state of New Jersey. We’re going to win New Jersey. If that even comes close to happening Trump will win this election bigly. And if he were to actually carry New Jersey, he’d be staring at a win that would likely come somewhere between Obama’s 2008 win and FDR’s 1932 win, just as the crowd size would suggest is possible. We could be seeing history in the making.