Q&A of the Day – Straight Ticket Voting & It’s Impact on the 2024 Presidential Election
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station’s page in the iHeart app.
Today’s Entry: Brian, you referenced how common it is for people to vote straight political tickets. My question for you is if you think third-party support is currently overstated in the presidential polls?
Bottom Line: Most Americans are straight ticket voters, they have been for many years, and the trend has only continued to grow with time. This has largely been due to the growing political divide between the two parties but also by what’s been a dwindling group of truly independent voters. Commonly you’ll hear news reports and even occasionally political candidates say that the largest grouping of voters are independents who aren’t aligned with a particular political party. That’s due to surveys, like Gallup’s monthly “Party Affiliation” survey consistently showing more Americans self-identify as “Independent” than they do as Democrats or Republicans. In reality, it couldn’t be further from the truth of what happens in voting booths.
On Election Day 2020, 38% of voters identified as independents compared to 30% identifying as Republicans and 31% identifying as Democrats. In the election 96% of voters voted for the same political party in all federal elections. Rhetorically people commonly claim independence, practically few are when voting. In a previous analysis I’ve pegged the actual percentage of truly independent voters at only 8%. Now, part of the reason we’ve had an increase in straight ticket voting is because of certain states have made it extremely easy to do so. Seven states: Alabama, Indiana, Michigan, Kentucky, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Nevada have had straight ticket processes in place – meaning that voters are able to select a political party to vote for which automatically will vote for all of the candidates from that party in partisan elections. When presented with the opportunity to do, two-thirds of the voters in those states have chosen to vote the straight-ticket option as opposed to voting for individual candidates. There are many arguments against the use of straight ticket voting options and one of the strongest is something today’s question hits on – the impact on independent candidates.
The ability to vote straight political tickets in an election is clearly aimed at favoring the two major political parties placing independent candidates at a natural disadvantage. Additionally, there are concerns, and evidence exists, that the use of straight tickets reduces turnout for non-partisan races. Historically we have always seen the top-of-the-ticket races receive the highest total number of votes – meaning that there have always been a small number of people who choose only to vote for president or for a governor leaving all other races blank. While voting for a straight ticket usually means voting in multiple races, we’ve seen an increase in the number of people who don’t end up voting in non-partisan elections and on ballot issues with the use of that method. Now, with that background established, let’s dive into today’s question about whether third-party support is likely overstated in this year’s presidential election.
Currently, according to the RealClear Politics 5-way polling average, 11% of voters are expressing support for a third-party candidate with an additional 6.4% of voters who say they’re undecided. How unusual is this polling result? If third party candidates gained at least ten percent of the vote it would be the first time in 28 years. The 1996 presidential election was the last time collectively candidates attracted a double-digit percentage of the vote (10.1%). Everything about this presidential election is unprecedented. Joe Biden is the oldest president to run for reelection. He has historically low approval ratings. Donald Trump is the first major party presidential candidate to have been convicted of a crime. It’s also the first presidential rematch since 1956. There are a lot of factors that could lead to outcomes that aren’t typical in this election cycle – like an especially large number of voters breaking for third party candidates for president. With that said, we have an idea about where the dust may settle.
In the 2020 Election Cycle a total of 2.6% of Americans sampled on Election Day said they’d vote for one of the two leading third-party candidates (the Libertarian and Green Party candidates)... In reality, only 1.4% of Americans did. Similarly, in 2016, 6.6% of Americans pledged support for the top-two third party candidates – while only 4.4% votes were cast for them. We could continue to head down that path, but you likely get the point. We’ve historically seen pledged support for third party candidates overstated by at least a third. If that historical trend were to hold this year what we would see would be the largest percentage of the vote for a third-party presidential candidate we’ve had since the 1996 election, but not a number that would even be on par with what third-party candidates were able to achieve in that cycle. And should that prove to be the case this year, with the dynamics involved with the two major party candidates, it would speak to how few voters are truly independent these days.
Bottom Line: Most Americans are straight ticket voters, they have been for many years, and the trend has only continued to grow with time. This has largely been due to the growing political divide between the two parties but also by what’s been a dwindling group of truly independent voters. Commonly you’ll hear news reports and even occasionally political candidates say that the largest grouping of voters are independents that aren’t aligned with a particular political party. That’s due to surveys, like Gallup’s monthly “Party Affiliation” survey that consistently shows that more Americans self-identify as “Independent” than they do as Democrats or Republicans. In reality, it couldn’t be further from the truth of what happens in voting booths.
On Election Day 2020, 38% of voters identified as independents compared to 30% identifying as Republicans and 31% identifying as Democrats. In the election 96% of voters voted for the same political party in all federal elections. Rhetorically people proclaim commonly claim independence, practically few are when voting. In a previous analysis I’ve pegged the actual percentage of truly independent voters at only 8%. Now, part of the reason we’ve had an increase in straight ticket voting is because of certain states have made it extremely easy to do so. Seven states: Alabama, Indiana, Michigan, Kentucky, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Nevada have had straight ticket processes in place – meaning that voters are able to select a political party to vote for which automatically will vote for all of the candidates from that party in partisan elections. When presented with the opportunity to do, two-thirds of the voters in those states have chosen to vote the straight-ticket option as opposed to voting for individual candidates. There are many arguments against the use of straight ticket voting options and one of the strongest is something today’s question hits on – the impact on independent candidates.
The ability to vote straight political tickets in an election is clearly aimed at favoring the two major political parties placing independent candidates at a natural disadvantage. Additionally, there are concerns, and evidence exists, that the use of straight tickets reduces turnout for non-partisan races. Historically we have always seen the top-of-the-ticket races receive the highest total number of votes – meaning that there have always been a small number of people who choose only to vote for president or for a governor leaving all other races blank. While voting for a straight ticket usually means voting in multiple races, we’ve seen an increase in the number of people who don’t end up voting in non-partisan elections and on ballot issues with the use of that method. Now, with that background established, let’s dive into today’s question about whether third-party support is likely overstated in this year’s presidential election.
Currently, according to the RealClear Politics 5-way polling average, 11% of voters are expressing support for a third-party candidate with an additional 6.4% of voters who say they’re undecided. How unusual is this polling result? If third party candidates gained at least ten percent of the vote it would be the first time in 28 years. The 1996 presidential election was the last time collectively candidates attracted a double-digit percentage of the vote (10.1%). Everything about this presidential election is unprecedented. Joe Biden is the oldest president to run for reelection. He has historically low approval ratings. Donald Trump is the first major party presidential candidate to have been convicted of a crime. It’s also the first presidential rematch since 1956. There are a lot of factors that could lead to outcomes that aren’t typical in this election cycle – like an especially large number of voters breaking for third party candidates for president. With that said, we have an idea about where the dust may settle.
In the 2020 Election Cycle a total of 2.6% of Americans sampled on Election Day said they’d vote for one of the two leading third-party candidates (the Libertarian and Green Party candidates)... In reality, only 1.4% of Americans did. Similarly, in 2016, 6.6% of Americans pledged support for the top-two third party candidates – while only 4.4% votes were cast for them. We could continue to head down that path, but you likely get the point. We’ve historically seen pledged support for third party candidates overstated by at least a third. If that historical trend were to hold this year what we would see would be the largest percentage of the vote for a third-party presidential candidate we’ve had since the 1996 election, but not a number that would even be on par with what third-party candidates were able to achieve in that cycle. And should that prove to be the case this year, with the dynamics involved with the two major party candidates, it would speak to how few voters are truly independent these days.