The Anatomy of a Swing State – The Biden vs. Trump Rematch – July 3rd
Bottom Line: With both major party nominations for President wrapped up and an apparent 2020 presidential rematch ahead of us it’s time for this week’s Anatomy of a Swing State update. In this series I analyze traditional swing states which will likely prove pivotal in determining the presidential outcome in November. This cycle we’ll have a rematch for the first time since 1956 and the seventh time overall. History has generally proved favorable for the challenger in presidential rematches. The loser in the first election matchup has won the rematch on four occasions with incumbent president winning out just twice. Due to the rematch, let’s first start with an overview of where the candidates stand today compared to Election Day 2020 using the RealClear Politics polling average nationally.
- Election Day 2020: Biden +7.2%
- June 25th, 2024: Trump +2.4% (3.8% in a 5-way matchup)
For the fourth straight week former President Donald Trump has expanded his national polling lead against President Biden. A slew of new polls following the first presidential debate have shown continued momentum for Trump. Trump’s advantage in both head-to-head polling and in the 5-way match-up, which accounts for third party candidates, has grown by 1.4% over a week ago, before the presidential debate. Donald Trump’s current polling advantage is his largest since he became the presumptive Republican nominee for president.
What we currently see is an 9.6% to 10.8% shift to the advantage of Donald Trump over Election Day 2020 in the national presidential polls. This type of swing in the electorate would clearly have a profound impact on the election outcome if it were to be held on Election Day. I’ve expanded the swing state series to include states won by President Biden by the larger of the two polling averages, the 5-way average, as there’s evidence the competitive map may be expanding for Donald Trump. Also, third-party candidates continue to make progress in qualifying for access to state ballots.
These are the states that Joe Biden won by 10.8% or less in 2020:
- Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia
Those are currently the key swing states to watch in this cycle. The two new additions this week are Virginia and New Mexico. The expectation would be that Trump would be able to retain the states he won four years ago with the question being whether he’d be able to flip enough swing states back his way from President Biden to win the election.
As of today, the RealClear average of state polls shows...
- Biden retaining: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia
- Trump flipping: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
More important than what’s happening nationally is what’s happening within specific states. Trump is currently shown with a 312 to 226 vote advantage in the Electoral College – that’s unchanged for eight consecutive weeks. No doubt a lot will change between today and Election Day in November, however the former and perhaps future President of the United States is currently the best positioned to win.