Trump’s New State of Play & The Presidential Race One Week After the Debate Top 3 Takeaways – July 3rd, 2024
- We do not oppose his request. In my Top 3 Takeaways yesterday, I specifically mentioned this in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity... Trump’s immune from his remaining prosecutions until proven otherwise. You’re familiar with the legal premise of presumed innocence. In the United States, unless you’re Donald Trump or an associate of his, you’re presumed innocent until proven guilty. In the Supreme Court’s ruling a president is to be presumed to be immune from criminal prosecution due to the need to carry out officials acts without fear from political prosecution by political opponents. The ruling establishes a burden of proof by prosecutors to evidence that alleged criminal actions weren’t official acts but rather personal acts outside the scope of the presidency. Only then may a prosecution proceed on charges that clear that high legal hurdle. I also mentioned this... In fact, there’s now even a question about whether Trump’s criminal conviction in his New York State case may have been improper. All of the payments made by Donald Trump for the Stormy Daniels NDA took place while he was already President of the United States. It might be a stretch to attempt to call those payments to his personal attorney Michael Cohen “official acts”, however you could certainly see where the Trump team might seek an appeal given that there’s a legal burden on the prosecution to evidence that presidential immunity doesn’t apply prior to bringing forward criminal charges in the case. Monday night the Trump legal team filed a letter with the judge (non-public) asserting the Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity in an effort to attempt to overturn the guilty verdict in the case. Right on cue Tuesday morning we had immediate movement on this issue. Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg filed a response to the Trump team’s request to delay Trump’s sentencing on July 11th. In the words of Bragg: Although we believe defendant's arguments to be without merit, we do not oppose his request for leave to file and his putative request to adjourn sentencing pending determination of his motion. As part of Bragg’s filing, he requested a two-week delay in the sentencing hearing seeking a deadline of July 24th for all motions to be filed prior to sentencing taking place. While it was possible that the Biden donor Judge Juan Merchan may have said damn the torpedoes and move forward with sentencing as planned July 11th...
- He’s not. With the prosecution even recognizing Trump’s legal right to have his presidential immunity challenges considered prior to sentencing, Merchan would have been on some awfully skinny branches all by himself if he rejected the request and moved forward instead. Yesterday I spoke of how poor so much of the legal analysis surrounding the implications of the immunity ruling were. I made it clear that every attempted prosecution against Trump was now in question including the case he’d been convicted in, and we’ve now seen immediate movement on that front. Stand by for news. As I also mentioned yesterday... Whatever does or doesn’t happen on July 11th is now the only remaining obstacle between him and the potential for the ultimate redemptive win on November 5th. Now we know that the potentially all-important date will be September 18th at the earliest (or if it ever comes) ... Speaking of which, Judge Merchan in issuing that order yesterday, said in selecting the new sentencing date of September 18th...if such is still necessary. The angle could be that he’d like to try to lock Trump up closer to the election. The angle could potentially be that there isn’t an angle as well because Trump wins in the end. The plot thickens.
- One week later. Today marks seven days since the rest of the world saw what those of us who’ve paid attention to the president knew...in the words of Lyndon Johnson... That dog won’t hunt. Not because the dog is necessarily lazy (though that’s possible too) but because it’s long past time that he was put out to pasture. In any event we now have a plethora of polling to see how Biden’s deep freeze and alleged golf game have played in presidential polling. The answer is just about how you might think. We have now had six accredited national polls with samples taken completely post the presidential debate. They all show Donald Trump in the lead nationally and most show Trump adding to his advantage since the debate. In the Data for Progress poll, they showed a 1-point Biden advantage in their most recent poll prior to the debate, they’ve now got Trump up 3. SurveyUSA previously had the race tied and now they’ve got Trump up 2. Morning Consult showed a 1-point Biden lead turning into a 1-point Trump advantage. The USA Today/Suffolk Poll shows Trump up 3 – their previous poll had the race at a tie. Harvard-Harris however showed something different. They’d previously had Trump up 6 and now they show Trump up 4. And last but not least there’s the network that hosted the debate...CNN. The good news for President Biden and most of CNN’s viewers is that Trump’s lead hasn't grown over their previous poll. The bad news for President Biden is that Trump’s lead is shown at six points. But even those polls don’t really tell the story. Here’s the bigger story. Trump’s running 12-points better against Biden today than he did four years ago. Not one point or two points better than four years ago...the former and perhaps future President of the United States is running 12 full points better than four years ago. One week later the news is predictably worse for team-Biden than it was before the debate but not actually by that much. As I’ve suggested throughout the course of this election cycle, there just aren’t that many persuadable people left in this country. And as for those who are persuadable – it appears as though most are choosing a lane. The state of play today is better than it’s ever been for Trump at any point in his three presidential races.