Voter ID Trends Favor Republicans
As we’re now under a hundred days away from Election Day we’re gaining a greater sense of the mood of the country as we approach what’s potentially the most important election of our lives. Gallup's monthly party ID results are in and they’re noteworthy as we head down the homestretch of the 2024 election cycle. Gallup has surveyed monthly on party ID trends since 2004. Gallup’s partisan ID survey serves two purposes. We’re able to see potential changes in the electorate between cycles and party ID is important when analyzing the accuracy of polling samples.
First, let’s look at what’s changed in party ID through the first half of this year. In January Democrats had a 3-point advantage over Republicans with leaners factored in. Entering July Republicans had flipped that script with a 3-point advantage. Importantly for Republicans, they have had the most recent political momentum and are currently in a position that’s more favorable than it was on Election Day 2016 or 2020.
- Party ID split Election Day 2016: DEM +3
- Party ID split Election Day 2020: DEM +3
- Party ID split Today: GOP +6
Republicans currently are nine points better off in party ID than in either of the previous two presidential election cycles. The caveats are these. This sampling was taken prior to the impact of the assassination attempt of Donald Trump, his selection of JD Vance as his running mate and Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive Democrat nominee following President Biden’s exit from the race. Those events may not inherently have an impact on how one identifies politically, though they could. Nevertheless, the political landscape for Republicans appears to be the most favorable it’s been in the twenty-year history of Gallup’s monthly surveying. The best partisan ID performance by Republicans on a presidential Election Day was the even split they held with Democrats on Election Day 2004. This survey also provides us with an idea of what polling samples should look like. Credible national polling samples should now include six percent more Republicans being surveyed than Democrats (or weighted accordingly).