Q&A of the Day – How Is Donald Trump Performing in Swing States Compared to Four Years Ago?
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Today’s Entry: Brian, in your swing state update you mentioned that Trump is still running about 7 points ahead of four years ago nationally even with Harris now showing a lead. How is he running against Harris in the swing states compared to four years ago and eight years ago when he won most of them?
Bottom Line: Yes, as noted, in this week’s Anatomy of a Swing State update we saw Kamala Harris take an overall lead in the national polls, which is a potential reflection of the national popular vote, however, Donald Trump maintained an advantage in the Electoral College. If that dynamic were to hold by Election Day, there could be the potential of a 2016 repeat with Kamala Harris carrying the national popular vote but with Donald Trump winning where it matters most in the Electoral College. In each of the prior two presidential elections Trump has performed better in each of the six closest battleground states than he has nationally. But just as importantly, when all we have to go on is political polls, Donald Trump outperformed them in both presidential election cycles...although not evenly.
Election Day Polling Averages Nationally
- 2016: Clinton +3.2%, Actual: Clinton +2.1%
- 2020: Biden +7.2%, Actual: Biden +4.5%
- Current: Harris +0.5%
So nationally, despite Harris now showing a slight lead, Trump is running 6.7% ahead of his loss in 2020 and 2.7% ahead of his win in 2016. For this reason, there’s room for Donald Trump’s supporters to be able to still be able to look at the national polls optimistically. Even if the polls didn’t under sample Trump’s support this time around, he’d still be performing well ahead of where he was in either of the prior two presidential elections. And that takes us to the crux of today’s question with the six closest swing states...
Polling average on Election Day
- Arizona: 2016: Trump+4 (won by Trump) 2020: Biden +0.9 (won by Biden) Current: Trump +2.8
- Georgia: 2016: Trump+4.8 (won by Trump) 2020: Trump +1% (won by Biden) Current: Trump +0.8
- Michigan: 2016: Clinton +3.6% (won by Trump) 2020: Biden +4.2 (won by Biden) Current: Harris +2
- Nevada: 2016: Trump+0.8 (won by Clinton) 2020: Biden +2.4 (won by Biden) Current: Trump +4
- Pennsylvania: 2016: Clinton+2.1 (won by Trump) 2020: Biden +1.2 (won by Biden) Current: Trump +1.8
- Wisconsin: 2016: Clinton +6.5 (won by Trump) 2020: Biden +6.7% (won by Biden) Current: Trump +0.2
Without getting into death by a thousand numbers what we’ve seen in the six most closely watched swing states from the previous two election cycles is that...
- Trump has performed in line with what the polls have suggested would happen in Arizona.
- Trump has underperformed his polling in Georgia and Nevada
- Trump has outperformed his polling in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
Using history as a guide, if something similar were to play out for a third time and the election were today, Donald Trump could feel good about how he’s positioned in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, cautiously optimistic about Nevada given the size of his current polling lead in that state, neutral about Michigan, and concerned about Georgia.
One of the big takeaways from this exercise is that while on balance Trump has outperformed both national polls and swing state polls in both of the prior two elections, there are differences in how that’s played out in individual states. The bottom line is that if history is a guide on Election Day the leader in Arizona will probably win, if the polling is especially tight in Georgia and Nevada those could be states that Trump would lose, and conversely, if the polls are especially tight in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin those could turn into Trump wins.
As we’re under three months away from Election Day a key question is whether the momentum Kamala Harris has seen in the polls over the past couple of weeks has run its course or whether there’s still room for more to come. If this proves to be a high point in this cycle for her campaign, Trump will be well positioned to win. If she can gain another two to three points nationally, that would likely translate into additional victories in swing states that could net Harris the win.