Election 2024 - Who will Control Congress? August 13th, 2024
Bottom Line: The primary focus of Presidential election cycles is naturally on the presidential race itself. With that said, what happens at the top of the ticket has increasingly had an outsized effect on what has happened down ballot as approximately 90% of voters now vote straight party tickets. The evidence of this dynamic is clear when one considers that George W. Bush entered office in 2001 with a Republican controlled Congress. In 2009 Barrack Obama’s large win came a with sizeable advantage for Democrats in Congress. Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 likewise carried Republicans to congressional majorities as did Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. It’s an oversimplification to suggest that the top-of-the-ticket this November will determine congressional control as well, though recent political history suggests that’s likely to be the case.
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 advantage in the Senate (with 4 independents caucusing with Democrats), while Republicans currently hold a 220 to 212 advantage (with 3 vacancies) in the House. Both bodies of congress are closely divided, making it more likely that the presidential election winner will have coattails to influence congressional control.
In the Real Clear Politics Polling average Democrats have an ever-so-slight 0.2% advantage currently. That compares to a 6.8% advantage for Democrats on Election Day 2020 and a 0.6% advantage on Election Day 2016. This indicates Republicans are running well ahead of four years ago when Democrats assumed control of Congress, while Republicans are running slightly higher than eight years ago when Republicans assumed a Congressional majority in both bodies.
There are five prominent, independent, political prognosticators for Congressional races: Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, Elections Daily, Inside Elections and Split Ticket (538 is owned by ABC News which is a subsidiary of Disney). The website 270towin.com publishes forecasts which aggregate the information from each of those services. The consensus forecast of the five prognosticators currently shows Republicans with a 209-201 advantage with 25 races that are considered tossups.
The consensus senate forecast shows Republicans gaining ground with a 50-48 advantage – with two races that are currently tossups. Under that scenario Republicans would be positioned to gain control of the senate if either Donald Trump were to win the presidency and/or they were able to win at least one of the two additional races that are considered to currently be tossups.
The tossups, both in the House and the Senate are the seats that typically turn in the direction of the party of the elected president. The current landscape congressionally looks very similar to that of the 2016 presidential election cycle as we’re now 12 weeks away from Election Day.