Q&A of the Day – What to Watch for in Florida’s Primaries
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio What is it that you think is worth watching in FL primaries that could be an indication of which party has an edge heading into November?
Bottom Line: As Florida’s primary elections take place today, we’re now only 11 weeks, or 77 days, away from November’s Election Day. The election process will play out especially quickly from here. In addressing today’s question, there are always tea leaves political observers try to read in advance of Election Day to discern which party might have an edge heading into the presidential election. It’s easy to attempt to read too much from one type of election months in advance of another but the one theme that can somewhat reliably be gleaned from Florida’s primary elections is voter enthusiasm. That’s at the top of the list of what I’m looking for in terms of broad themes. I’ll start there.
- Since 2000 turnout in Florida’s August Primary Election has averaged 24%
The range in voter turnout during that time has been 18% to 28%. The two lowest turnout years were 2008 and 2012 when Barack Obama went on to win Florida and the presidency. In other words, since 2000, when a Democrat carried Florida, the average turnout in the August primaries has been under 20%. Since 2000, when a Republican has carried Florida (and in three out of the four elections the presidency), turnout has averaged 26%. Neither of those figures are especially impressive turnout numbers, but what it does reflect is turnout is especially low in the August primaries in Florida when Democrats have a good year. Turnout is about 6-7 points higher in good years for Republicans in Florida. This is a bit of an oversimplification, but recent history suggests that if turnout comes in at 23% or less, it’s likely good news for Democrats entering November. If it’s 24% or higher, it’s probably a good sign for Republicans. That leads me to the second data point I’ll be looking to drill down a bit on. What will the turnout be among registered partisans?
When people are fired up to vote during an election cycle, they make the most out of every opportunity to vote. If there’s a particular political party that has an enthusiasm edge it should begin to show up in the partisan split of who turns out to vote. This is the first presidential election cycle in Florida’s history in which Republicans have a voter registration advantage. Will Republicans flex that advantage with an enthusiasm gap to match, or will Democrats be more enthused about the opportunity to vote which would have the potential to bridge the voter registration gap?
Florida’s current voter registration composition looks like this:
- DEM: 31.9%
- GOP: 39.3%
- NPA/Other: 28.8%
There is currently a 7.4% voter registration advantage in Florida for Republicans. That’s a number I’m watching to infer potential voter enthusiasm. If Republicans out vote Democrats by 7.5% or greater they currently have an enthusiasm edge. If it comes in at 7.3% or lower Democrats have the enthusiasm advantage. While that information would be specific to Florida, it’s a dynamic that could also be illustrative of the national mood of the country as well. Notably, through early voting and with all mailed in ballots as of Monday, Republicans were sitting with exactly a 7.4% advantage over Democrats. Historically Republicans have outvoted Democrats on Election Day. If that trend holds this could be a big storyline coming out of this election.
Florida’s obviously no longer the ultimate swing state that determines how elections are going to go, however if in our large and diverse state there’s a particular political party with an enthusiasm edge it’s not as likely to be specific to our state in a presidential election cycle like it was, for example, in the 2022 midterm elections with a gubernatorial race at the top of our ticket with an especially popular governor for Floridians to vote for. Speaking of our governor. Does DeSantis still have the juice?
Governor DeSantis not only led the best election cycle in the history of the Republican Party in Florida two years ago. He also reshaped non-partisan school boards across the state with his endorsements. Governor DeSantis endorsed 36 school board candidates in the 2022 election cycle across the state. His candidates won 30 of those races – meaning he helped flip 83% of the school board races he sought to flip. The incumbency re-election rate had been 82% in Florida. DeSantis’ school board endorsements were a stunning success that shaped school boards across our state.
DeSantis is back at it endorsing school board candidates again this cycle. He’s endorsed 23 candidates that have been outspoken parental rights in education supporters. Among those 23 races there are eight incumbents he’s seeking to oust. If DeSantis has the same level of juice within this state that he had two years ago he should be able to help flip a minimum of 6 of those 8 school board seats he’s targeting. If he’s successful in his effort, he’ll not only help support his education agenda at the local level with the continued reshaping of Florida’s school boards, he’ll also be able to illustrate the strength of his brand within the state that’s been called in to question by some following his unsuccessful presidential bid this cycle.
There are of course many other themes worth watching but those are my three big themes I’ll be looking for in determining if there’s more to infer by today’s primary elections than just determining the winners of the races at hand.