Florida’s Primary Election Takeaways – Top 3 Takeaways – August 21st, 2024
- Turnout. In yesterday’s Q&A I was asked what I would be watching to infer political trends that might be relevant to what might happen in November. I highlighted three themes and those are my top three takeaways today. The first had to do with statewide turnout for Florida’s Primary Election Day. As mentioned... Since 2000 turnout in Florida’s August Primary Election has averaged 24%. When a Democrat carried Florida, the average turnout in the August primaries has been under 20%. Since 2000, when a Republican has carried Florida (and in three out of the four elections the presidency), turnout has averaged 26%. Turnout is especially low in the August primaries in Florida when Democrats have a good year. Turnout is about 6-7 points higher in good years for Republicans. This is a bit of an oversimplification, but recent history suggests that if turnout comes in at 23% or less, it’s likely good news for Democrats entering November. If it’s 24% or higher, it’s probably a good sign for Republicans. So, what did the survey say? With only a small smattering of provisional votes yet to be reconciled across the state turnout checked in at...22.4%. That’ll nudge up a little bit with all provisional ballots accounted for but on the surface the turnout temperature check would suggest enthusiasm that is close to neutral in Florida right now and potentially a bit more favorable for Democrats than the previous two presidential election cycles. Now, doing a spot check, it is notable that turnout was lowest in Democrat majority counties. I’ll take a closer look at that dynamic today and report back tomorrow. The high-water mark for turnout in the August primaries since 2000 was 28%. The last time August turnout was this low, was 2012 when it was 21%.
- The partisan split. My second takeaway today is in some ways related to the first but is more specifically geared towards inferring which party currently has an edge in voter enthusiasm in Florida... one that may also carry into November and that could be indicative of voter enthusiasm among partisans in other states as well. As I mentioned yesterday... There is currently a 7.4% voter registration advantage in Florida for Republicans. That’s a number I’m watching to infer potential voter enthusiasm. If Republicans out vote Democrats by 7.5% or greater they currently have an enthusiasm edge. If it comes in at 7.3% or lower Democrats have the enthusiasm advantage. And obviously the more exaggerated those splits are one way or another the greater the level of enthusiasm there is on one side of the political aisle. So, what did the survey say? Republicans meaningfully outperformed Democrats at the ballot box in this year’s primary election cycle. Again, with only a small smattering of votes yet to be reconciled, we see that the Republican voter turnout advantage checked in at about...10%. Again, that number will move around a bit once all of the dust has settled, however, in what turned out to be a low turnout Primary Election Day, Florida’s Republicans did once again outvote Democrats on Election Day and thus outvoted Democrats statewide even when adjusted for voter registration status. With the low turnout on both sides, it’s hard to suggest this shows momentum for Republicans over Democrats within the state, but what it does run counter to the national narrative that Kamala Harris’ rise to the top of the ticket has given Democrats an edge in voter enthusiasm. Empirically in Florida that is not the case. When tying my top to takeaways together today what we may be staring at is an election with lower voter turnout than four years ago in November with the party most successful in turning out their voters being key in determining close races.
- DeSantis mojo. My third takeaway today has to do with how much weight DeSantis’ school board endorsements still have. As I mentioned yesterday... Governor DeSantis endorsed 36 school board candidates in the 2022 election cycle across the state. His candidates won 30 of those races – meaning he helped flip 83% of the school board races he sought to flip. The incumbency re-election rate had been 82% in Florida. DeSantis is back at it endorsing school board candidates again this cycle. He’s endorsed 23 candidates that have been outspoken parental rights in education supporters. Among those 23 races there are eight incumbents he’s seeking to oust. If DeSantis has the same level of juice within this state that he had two years ago he should be able to help flip a minimum of 6 of those 8 school board seats he’s targeting. So, what did the survey say? DeSantis wasn’t able to repeat the success he had two years ago. Of his 23 endorsed candidates 6 won at least 11 lost elections with an additional six of his endorsed candidates going to runoff elections. As of now he was only successful in flipping two of the eight seats he sought to flip with another going to a runoff. That’s still better performance than the historical norms, however not anywhere near what DeSantis was able to do two years ago. The political mood in Florida isn’t like it was in 2022. The bottom line as we digest Tuesday’s Primary Election Day is that it was a mixed bag of results. One that suggests neither party is currently poised for wave election results in November.