Election Season Starts this Week – Top 3 Takeaways – September 3rd, 2024
- It’s a season not a day. Trivia time. What percentage of voters now vote prior to Election Day? Have a number in mind? What do you think...is it 30% or even 50%? If you said 71%, you’re right. In the 2020 Presidential election only 29% of people voted on Election Day. That breaks out to 30% who opted for early in-person voting with 41% who opted to use vote-by-mail ballots. Now, due to the pandemic four years ago, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the numbers swing a bit back in favor of a bit more in-person voting and a bit less mail-in in voting but the one trend we’ve seen since the onset of the ability for voters to vote prior to Election Day – is that once they do it – vote early that is – they never go back. As an early in-person voter myself – that's certainly has been my preference. In the 1998 midterm elections I nearly didn’t make it to my polling place in time on Election Day, and I’ve voted early in-person (given the opportunity) ever since. Anyway, what this means is that as we have begun this abbreviated Labor Day week, ushering in the fall season, we’re also set to usher in what’s become the Election Season. Vote-by-mail ballots will first be on the move this Friday, September 6th in swing state North Carolina. By the 16th early in-person voting will be underway in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania. Notably different this time around is the approach team Trump is taking to “Election Season”. Gone is the message of waiting to vote on Election Day. In its place is the message of the importance to “Swamp the Vote”. As announced in June... Eight years ago, the future President of the United States ran a campaign focused on “draining the swamp”. This cycle, the former and perhaps future President of the United States launched a campaign to...
- “Swamp The Vote”. No this doesn’t specifically have anything to do with swamp creatures voting, it does have everything to do with early voting. In what is without a doubt the most important policy reversal Donald Trump has made since first entering politics, the former president launched a campaign to encourage his supporters to “swamp the vote”. This campaign has featured Trump giving a full-throated endorsement of early voting and the use of vote-by-mail ballots. Quoting Trump: Republicans must win and we must use every appropriate tool available to beat the Democrats. Whether you vote early, absentee, by mail or in person, we must swamp the radical Democrats with massive turnout. If we swamp them, they can’t cheat, it just doesn’t work out. And what we’ve already seen from Trump is that he’s not only endorsed voting early, he...himself, for the first time ever, has voted early. In Florida’s August primaries the former president and first lady both voted early. And this is critical to Trump’s chances of winning, and for Republicans down ballot for that matter as well. As I’ve previously highlighted...it’s imperative to... Play the game the way the game is played. As I mentioned following the 2022 midterm elections in Florida when there was a historic red wave in this state – that didn’t translate to any other state...Republicans dominated early voting in Florida, out voting Democrats, who’d long held the advantage in our state, by 2-1. There are many reasons why a historic Republican win occurred in Florida, including lower turnout by Democrats, but beyond the issues, behind DeSantis’ personal popularity it was the ground game. Republicans turned out to vote early in Florida like they did in no other state and that was the difference between winning and winning a historic victory here. Similar efforts by Republicans in other states would potentially, likely, have made the difference between outright loses and wins.
- Republicans need to stop complaining about the way elections are conducted across the country, and they need to start playing the voting game the way it’s set to be played. Democrats have exceled at playing the game well, while Republicans have complained about mail-in-ballots being everywhere and extended early voting happening everywhere. Look at what happened in Florida when we stopped complaining and started voting early instead. That model, that mindset, needs to happen everywhere. There’s no substitute for good policy and good candidates with good policy positions...but none of it matters if Republicans across the country pretend that elections only happen on Election Day. It’s time to play the game everywhere the way that it’s played. That’s the message that must be put in play in parts of this country as early as this week. You can’t win elections by fighting the way that 71% of voters have chosen to vote. What’s more, is this important point... In an analysis for Newsmax, Dick Morris pointed out that voting early accomplishes two things. It ensures you don’t have an oh crap moment on Election Day that keeps you from being able to vote. But it also accomplishes something else that’s probably even further off your radar. It frees up party operatives from feeling as though they need to expend time and resources on you, to attempt make sure you get out to vote. In voting early you’re also allowing your party to focus on getting out the vote with those who might not be as reliable as you. As Morris pointed out, the potential impact of those two factors – those who intend to vote on Election Day but don’t because stuff happened, and parties being able to activate less reliable voters is worth up to 5% of the vote. How many super important elections have been decided by 5% or less? So, by getting out to vote as soon as you’re able, you’re potentially helping advance your political preferences by even more than just the impact of your vote. That needs to happen everywhere all of the time as election season is getting underway. The time to begin Swamping the Vote starts this week. Trump’s willingness to finally embrace playing the game the way that its played is the most important political issue he’s flipped on since becoming President of the United States. And if he’s to become president once again, this marked change in philosophy will be a reason why...but of course that’s only the case if his supporters following through with voting as early as they can do. There’s an old joke about “voting early and often”. Well, the “often” thing isn’t the way to go but voting early most certainly is key to securing election victories these days.