The Anatomy of a Swing State – Harris vs. Trump – September 11th
Bottom Line: We’re now under 8 weeks away from Election Day having had what’s likely to be the last presidential debate of this cycle. Voting is now also getting underway in multiple states starting with an important state in North Carolina. As reactions to last night’s presidential debate roll in, and as we await to see what the impact will be in the polls, we have an idea of where this race stood entering last night’s debate.
We’ll start with an overview of where Trump stands today in polling against Harris compared to where he stood on Election Day 2020 against Biden using the RealClear Politics polling average nationally.
- Election Day 2020: Biden +7.2%
- September 10th, 2024: Harris +1.1%
A week ago, I’d suggested Kamala Harris’ consistent ascent in the polls appeared to have peaked. A week later, as we await the results of last night’s debate, it appears that was the case entering the debate as Trump had been making up ground on Harris. Harris’ lead entering the debate was on par with what it was prior to the DNC. What we currently see is an 6.1% shift to the advantage of Donald Trump over Election Day 2020. Without another known positive catalyst on the horizon for Harris, Donald Trump is sitting in a significantly stronger position today than when he narrowly lost the election four years ago, and also when he narrowly won the election eight years ago. A 6-point plus swing in the electorate over four years ago would clearly have a profound impact on the election outcome if it were to be held by Election Day.
These are the states that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won by 6.1% or less in 2020:
- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Those are currently the key swing states to watch as of this week. The expectation would be that Trump would be able to retain the states he won four years ago with the question being whether he’d be able to flip enough swing states back his way to win the election.
Since Harris’ assent to the top-of-the ticket Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia have moved from potential swing state status back into likely states for Democrats prior to this week’s changes. With each of those changes the path to victory expands for Kamala Harris as it narrows for Donald Trump.
As of today, the RealClear average of state polls shows...
- Harris retaining: Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin
- Trump flipping: Arizona, Georgia
- Tied: Pennsylvania
There are two significant changes this week. The first is that Nevada, was had been tied last week, is now shown as a potential hold for Harris. The much bigger move is that Pennsylvania, which may be the most pivotal swing state of this cycle, moved from Harris to being tied this week. As a result, this is what the electoral college breakout looks like: Trump leading 262 to 257 (with Pennsylvania’s 19 votes unallocated).
If you account for how the polls performed in each of these states in the prior two presidential elections here’s what we see:
- Trump has performed in line with what the polls have suggested would happen in Arizona.
- Trump has underperformed his polling in Georgia and Nevada
- Trump has outperformed his polling in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
If the polls perform similarly this cycle compared to how they’ve performed the prior two cycles Harris would carry Nevada and Georgia based on current polling, however Trump would carry Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Adjusted for the margin of error in the polls previously, Trump is shown with a 290-248 vote advantage currently.
What this illustrates is a tight race as of today with an election that could hinge on which direction Pennsylvania goes if the polls are taken at face value to a narrow but slightly more comfortable win for Trump if the polls perform similarly to their averages over the prior two cycles.