Q&A of the Day – How Are Florida’s Blue Counties Trending?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
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Today’s Entry: Brian, Enjoy listening to your views during my commute. My question is this: I was in Hillsborough County for 20 years and now Palm Beach County for the last almost 5. It was always stated that Hillsborough, Dade and Palm Beach were solidly democratic majority counties. I know voter registration has moved more republican. Are these counties still majority democrat? Thank you and keep up the great work.
Bottom Line: Thank you for listening and for a great question. I remembered having covered this topic last year and when I found the story it just so happened to be that I covered it October. That allows me to neatly share the changes in Florida’s blue counties year-over-year in order illustrate the most recent trends. I'll also break down the changes over four years ago during the previous presidential election.
I’ll start by breaking out the counties where Democrats held a voter registration advantage as recently as last year. Of Florida’s 67 counties, there were 13 in which Democrats held a voter registration advantage at some point during 2023:
- Alachua, Broward, Duval, Gasden, Hillsborough, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Miami Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, St. Lucie
So, what’s changed in these counties over the past year? Quite a bit with a clear trend. Republicans have gained ground in every blue county in Florida over the past year with multiple flips along the way. Here are the year-to-date (through August) gains Republicans have made relative to Democrats in each county:
- Alachua: 992 voters
- Broward: 10,104 voters
- Duval: 8,656 voters
- Gasden: 23 voters
- Hillsborough: 7,504 voters
- Leon: 4,031 voters
- Liberty: 1,336 voters (county flipped to GOP majority)
- Madison: 745 voters (county flipped to GOP majority)
- Miami Dade: 32,365 voters
- Orange: 5,143 voters
- Osceola: 2,816 voters
- Palm Beach: 13,915 voters
- St. Lucie: 4,800 voters (county flipped to GOP majority)
That’s a GOP gain of 92,430 net voters across the 13 previously blue counties thus far this year and with three counties having flipped from Democrat majorities to Republican majorities year-over-year. Here’s another way of looking at what’s been happening throughout the course of this year. 38% of the gains made by Republicans in voter registrations this year have come in the states remaining ten blue counties. That’s a big headline that comes out of this analysis. The continued success by Republicans in Florida isn’t just a story of Florida’s red counties becoming redder, but rather its driven by every blue country becoming less blue, including one county that’s flipped to a Republican majority in the process.
In specifically addressing the three historically blue counties asked about in today’s Q&A, Hillsborough, Miami Dade and Palm Beach, here’s where they stand in partisan voter registrations (as of September 1st).
- Hillsborough: D+ 7,182 voters
- Miami Dade: D+ 50,195 voters
- Palm Beach: D+ 45,414 voters
All three counties remain Democrat majority counties by way of voter registration though all three counties have rapidly moved towards the right since Election Day 2020 with Hillsborough on the precipice of becoming the next blue county in Florida to flip if recent trends continue through year end.
Last November’s record Republican wins in Florida included eight of the 13 Democrat majority counties breaking for Republicans at the top of the ticket. Given these significant voter registration trends in these counties this year, there’s reason to think we may be primed to potentially see a repeat in next year’s elections. Especially if these trends continue to pace in this direction, at this rate, until then. Presidential election years always result in large numbers of new voter registrations from those who’ve become age-eligible to vote and from those who’ve moved to the state. It will be as interesting as it will be revealing to see what those trends look like as we head towards March’s presidential primary election in Florida and eventually the August primary elections in Florida next year. For now, the trend continues to be the Republicans’ friend in Florida – especially in the traditionally blue counties.