Q&A of the Day – How Rare Are EF3 Tornadoes in Florida?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio Have we ever had EF3’s in Florida before Milton?
Bottom Line: Waterspouts in South Florida are common. I’ll always remember watching four of them develop in a row just off South Palm Beach in 2007. Similarly, I remember Ashley and I watching a storm over the intracoastal which spun up a waterspout weaving its way across the water and flipping our neighbor’s boat off of their boatlift. Waterspouts are one thing, major tornadoes are of course quite another.
It’s rare that wind, and specifically tornadoes, are the deadliest aspect of any hurricane event. As I mentioned during last week’s coverage of Hurricane Milton, historically only 8% of the deaths attributed to hurricanes are the direct result of wind, with only 3% of the deaths attributed to tornadoes spawned by hurricanes. Milton proved to be the ultimate outlier as it spawned a record setting number of tornado warnings, 126, 45 confirmed tornadoes (a number that may still rise), three of which were EF3 tornadoes (with surveys still ongoing to determine the number and strength) and a current death toll of 23, with tornadoes being directly attributed for over a quarter of those who lost their lives during the storm. The bottom line is that Florida’s east coast, nor the state of Florida for that matter, has ever experienced a hurricane quite like Milton. To put what we just experienced in perspective, here’s a historical perspective of Florida’s tornadic activity.
Tornadic activity certainly isn’t rare in the state. Florida averages 60 tornadoes per year, or one about every six days entering this year. However, for residents of Florida’s east coast they’re much rarer. The top five counties in Florida for tornado activity are in the central and western portions of the state...
- #5 Seminole
- #4 Orange
- #3 Manatee
- #2 Pinellas
- #1 Hillsborough
Palm Beach County serves as a good example of how unusual tornadic activity is on this side of the state. Covering 1971 miles, Palm Beach County is the second largest in geography in the state and yet the county is only the 24th most likely to experience a tornado. By way of comparison, Hillsborough is twice as likely to be struck by a tornado as Palm Beach County. Since 1950, at the onset of formalized tornado tracking by the National Weather Service, Palm Beach County had experienced a total of 63 tornadoes entering this year, or just under one tornado annually. Today’s question was about whether our state had experienced EF3 tornadoes prior to Milton. The answer is yes, however rarely and not in an awfully long time.
Preceding Milton, the counties encompassing the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast (Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, Okeechobee and Indian River), had experienced a total of three EF3 tornadoes, or those with winds of 136-165 MPH. The three previous EF3’s were these:
- St Lucie County: September 18th, 1954
- Palm Beach County: October 19th, 1958 (which continued into Martin County)
- Martin County: January 24th, 1979
Prior to Milton it had been over 45 years since an EF3 tornado had touched down locally. Also, with two of Milton’s EF3’s happening within these communities, we had nearly as many EF3’s in Milton, as we’d had previously in recorded history. In Florida’s history there’s never been a recorded EF5 tornado but there have been two EF4’s with both forming in Hillsborough County on Florida’s Gulf coast (1958 and 1966).
Most of our tornadoes have been far more benign. An EF0 is the most common tornado that’s touched down in eastern Florida and those are often the byproduct of tropical systems making their way through. As much as anything Milton highlights the uniqueness of hurricanes. Hurricane Helene, which struck two weeks prior to Milton, had a wind field that was greater than twice the size of Milton and yet it didn’t spawn any tornadoes in Florida where it made landfall. As devastating as 2022’s Hurricane Ian was, as it made its way through Southwest Florida, it only spawned a few tornadoes and its strongest was an EF2 which ran from northern Boca continuing through into western Delray. To that end it’s not just that EF3’s are rare in our area, even EF2’s are uncommon. Prior to Ian, the area hadn’t had an EF2 since 2008.
So yes, Milton proved to be historic in many ways pertaining to tornadic activity and likely will be the record holder in numerous ways for tornadic activity within our state by the time the National Weather Service has completed its survey work to confirm the total number and the strength of all tornadoes to touch down.