Tracking Turnout. Florida’s Early Voting and Vote-By-Mail Update
Bottom Line: Florida’s Election Day is 12 days away and already over 2,251,158 Floridians have had their votes tabulated. This cycle marks the first presidential election cycle in Florida’s history with Republicans holding a voter registration advantage. Republicans currently outnumber Democrats by over 1 million eligible voters entering this year’s election.
Here’s how many Floridians have voted based on party registration in comparison to the 2020 Election:
- Democrat: 37.6% (39.1% - in 2020)
- Republican: 42.4% (37.7% in 2020)
- NPA/Minor Party: 20% (23.2% in 2020)
Four years ago, Democrats held a significant advantage with vote by mail ballots with Republicans out voted Democrats with early in person voting. After the first few days of early voting the trends remain the same but the results are different. Democrats are leading in vote by mail ballots cast (though by a narrower margin as four years ago), while Republicans have outvoted Democrats by nearly 2 to 1 in early voting thus far. Democrats have historically had an advantage with votes cast prior to Election Day. As a result, Republicans are running nearly 5 points ahead of where they were four years ago prior to Election Day, while Democrats are pacing 1.5% behind the previous cycle’s pace in the state.
Republicans have historically outvoted Democrats on Election Day. Two key themes to watch leading up to Election Day will be overall turnout heading into Election Day and the partisan mix of those who’ve voted early.