The State of Play 4 Days Away from Election Day - Top 3 Takeaways – November 1st, 2024
- The state of play four days away from Election Day. There’s one thing that’s almost impossible not to do as we’re only four days away from Election Day. Think about it. Really, go ahead and try for a moment. Don’t think about the election, I’ll count to ten. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. How’d that go? I mean yeah, when you’re in the middle of doing something that really matters, you’re likely focused on whatever that is, but the moment there’s any idle time where does your mind go? Probably to thinking about the polls. Are there any new ones that say what I want them say? And you’re likely often thinking about the actual polls...as in early voting trends (That is unless you’re Joel. He’s probably still thinking about how much he thinks the Dolphins will lose to the Bills by – this was a topic of conversation he brought up during the day yesterday). Yes, this might mean that you, and for that matter me...have a problem. However, in reality it probably means that you care about this country and our communities as much as you should. Being an engaged and concerned citizen is inherently American – given that this country was literally founded by concerned citizens. These days, even if our president calls us garbage, we’re fortunate to be able to vote out the trash as opposed to have to literally having to fight to take out the trash. But just as any who has served in the military is able to tell you, maintaining freedom is anything but free. Being a concerned citizen who votes is the least that any of us can be. The reason I’ve started my takeaways on this Friday before Election Day with this line of thinking is because the state of play four days from Election Day is whatever we make of it. I can bring you the latest data from political polls and actual polls (which I am about to do) but the only thing that really matters is what you make of this election. If you haven’t yet voted let’s start there. Don’t wait until Tuesday when life and potentially bad weather can happen and derail your plans for that day. Go to the polls today, tomorrow, or if you’re able and still need to do so, on Sunday. But don’t stop there. Spread this message and get out the word. Make sure every like-minded person you know turns out to the polls. A just conducted YouGov poll found that 2% of registered voters don’t intend to vote because they said, “their vote doesn’t matter”. This apparently is a thing some Floridians believe. First, even if one believes that the presidential race in Florida won’t be that close...
- There’s value in the vote. A presidential candidate wins the election through the electoral college but the broadest governing mandate within congress by winning the popular vote. But aside from a potential presidential mandate, here are races that will shape our state and potentially the future of our country that may well be decided by just 2% of the vote. Amendments 3 and 4, the marijuana and abortion amendments. Every credible poll I’ve seen over the past month has shown those amendments right at 60% support – the level needed to pass or less. So, for example, if current polls show 60% support with likely voters, you might think both are going to pass. If however, additional voters who aren’t likely voters, step up and vote no they might not. You might think your vote doesn’t matter but a future baby born in Florida who might have otherwise been subjected to a late term abortion might disagree. Every vote matters. Two other elections I believe will be closer than many perceive are two local congressional races. Are Democrats Lois Frankel and Jared Moskowitz likely to win reelection? Yes. Is it a given that they’ll win reelection? No. Two years ago, Palm Beach County voted for the entire Republican cabinet for the first time in the county’s history. Voter registration trends have only become more favorable throughout the area since then. Also, early voting trends are proving to be especially favorable for Republicans locally once again. If a Republican wave plays its way across South Florida once again on Tuesday, the incumbent Democrats in those two congressional seats could potentially be swept out with it – but only if everyone’s who inclined to see it happen, votes. So about those votes...
- They’re still trending in Trump’s direction. At multiple points throughout the week, I’ve updated the early voting trends. As we’re set to wrap up this week, it’s the biggest story of the week, because garbage doesn’t only float, as we’ve come to see this week, lots of garbage early votes. Four years ago, heading into Election Day, Democrats had a 14.3% lead in partisan voter turnout across the country in the 20 states (including Florida) with partisan reporting. As of today, the Democrat lead in voter turnout in those states is down to 2.3%. In Florida, Republicans are performing 13.4% better in turnout with votes cast prior to Election Day compared to four years ago. Among swing states with direct reporting data, Republicans are performing over 10-points better in Arizona, 7-points better in North Carolina, 9-points better in Nevada and 16.5-points better in the most pivotal swing state in the country this cycle, in Pennsylvania. That’s a clean sweep in turnout so far and a good sign for the MAGA Trashman and trashmen and women down ballot. So is this. Gallup’s latest findings about who intends to vote on Election Day. According to Gallup, among likely partisan voters, Democrats indicated they are 16% more likely than Republicans to vote before the election compared to voting on Election Day. That’s exactly the same margin between the two parties that Gallup sampled four years ago. What that means is that there remains a reason to believe that Republicans will once again hold the advantage in Election Day turnout over Democrats as well. According to Emerson’s latest survey Trump has a three-point lead with independents nationally. Aside from turnout, how independents break is the major wildcard this cycle. That too would seem to be good news for team Trump and the GOP generally. If Republicans can hold a turnout lead in the critical swing states heading into Election Day and win in turnout on Election Day, you don’t need any analysis from me to know what’s likely to be in those states.