Who will Control Congress? Election Day 2024
Bottom Line: The primary focus of presidential election cycles is naturally on the presidential race itself. With that said, what happens at the top of the ticket has increasingly had an outsized effect on what has happened down ballot as approximately 90% of voters vote straight party tickets. The evidence of this dynamic is clear when one considers that George W. Bush entered office in 2001 with a Republican controlled Congress. In 2009 Barrack Obama’s large win came a with sizeable advantage for Democrats in Congress. Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 likewise carried Republicans to congressional majorities as did Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. It’s an oversimplification to suggest that the top-of-the-ticket will determine congressional control as well, though recent political history suggests that’s likely to be the case.
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 advantage in the Senate (with 4 independents caucusing with Democrats), while Republicans currently hold a 220 to 212 advantage (with 3 vacancies) in the House. Both bodies of congress are closely divided, making it more likely that the presidential election winner will have coattails to influence congressional control.
In the RealClear Politics Polling average, Republicans have an ever-so-slight 0.3% advantage currently. That compares to a 6.8% advantage for Democrats on Election Day 2020 and a 0.6% advantage for Democrats on Election Day 2016. In other words, over the prior two presidential election cycles, with Donald Trump’s name on the ballot, Republicans have performed 2.7% better in congressional elections than the partisan polling averages. The last presidential election in which Republicans held a generic ballot advantage on Election Day, was 2012 when Republicans were shown with a 0.2% advantage – similar to what we see this cycle. Republicans exited that election cycle with 234 seats in the House compared to 201 for Democrats. If a similar result occurred, it would mean Republicans would gain 14 seats compared to a loss of 11 for House Democrats. When Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, Republicans won a total of 241 seats in the House.
There is historically very little information available in most House district races making it extremely difficult to attempt to predict individual outcomes across the country. One other dynamic that complicates historical comparisons is redistricting that’s taken place following the 2020 Census resulting in more races that are less competitive. House redistricting was a net negative for Republicans nationally. Based on what I’ve shared, I expect Republicans will retain control of the House adding an estimated 8 seats to their majority to finish with 228 seats.
The story in the Senate is a different story. Whereas the House of Representatives is historically likely to break in the direction of the presidential winner in presidential election cycles, that’s only occasionally the case in presidential election cycles. However, as the case happens to be I think that will likely take place again today.
Polling has consistently shown Republicans picking up the necessary two senate seats to gain control throughout this cycle regardless of who the presumptive Democrat presidential nominee was at any given time and which presidential candidate showed polling leads at any given time. The consensus senate forecast with leading prognosticators shows Republicans picking up senate seats in Montana and West Virginia. However, there are also a number of what appear to be close senate races in key swing states – Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That’s in addition to another Democrat held seat up for election in a “red state” - Ohio. In analyzing these five seats held by Democrats, but that are potentially in play, there’s one notable takeaway. Democrats are showing polling leads in all of them in an average of all the polls.
I’ll spare you the considerable details about each race and simply say that the polling averages in each of these senate races in 2018 and 2012 overstated Republican support – meaning the Democrats performed better than the polling averages – except in one of these states – Ohio. In Ohio, the polls have under sampled Republican support in the previous two races sufficiently enough for Bernie Moreno, the Republican challenger in the race, to overcome the sub-1% deficit he’s polling with coming into Election Day. For that reason, I believe Republicans will flip Ohio as well resulting in a 52-48 advantage. If by chance, there were a wave election for Republicans today, there would be upside with all of the in-play races today providing Republicans with upside to 56 seats.
So that’s my base case for the Congressional races today. It’s my belief that Republicans will control the House and Senate with an estimated 228 seats in the House and 52 seats in the Senate.