How Trump Won, How Congress Was Won & How Florida Was Won – Top 3 Takeaways – November 6th, 2024
- How the presidency was won. Yesterday my top takeaway was that Donald Trump would be the next President of the United States. As I mentioned... Every data point I’ve studied shows Donald Trump in the best position he’s ever been in on Election Day. And my closing message to you was to... Vote like your freedom, your future, your children’s future, your country depends on it. Because it does. It’s clear that you did. This morning it’s clear that Donald Trump is not only the next President of the United States but also with what appears to be his biggest margin of victory. While votes are still being counted in several swing states, Trump has leads in all the swing states, and he appears to be on track to achieve 312 Electoral College votes – which is precisely what my Anatomy of a Swing State projection showed and six more than what Trump won with in 2016. It also appears likely that Donald Trump will do what few envisioned he could do even if he were to win the election... Carry the national popular vote as well as Trump currently leads Harris by millions of votes. Donald Trump is on track for the most impressive victory by a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988. They’ll be time in the days ahead to discuss exactly how we got here but the big story was Donald Trump outperforming his previous performances everywhere – but most impressively with the youngest voters – where Trump performed approximately 15 – points better than four years ago, and with minorities where he also improved his performance over four years ago. On October 22nd of 2021, I spoke of this likely shift in saying that generational change is here and that a generational opportunity existed for Donald Trump and Republicans going forward. That’s clearly the case today. Donald Trump will join Grover Cleveland as the only president to successfully complete a political comeback all while having been indicted four times, convicted once, having survived two assassination attempts including one that resulted in him being shot. There’s never been a president like Donald Trump. There’s never been a comeback story like Donald Trump’s – the 45th and 47th president of the United States.
- How Congress was won. While it’s going to take some time to sort out exactly where control of the House stands due to many close races, Republicans have currently flipped a net 3-seats nationally placing them on a path to retain a House majority – though that’s not yet certainty. The Senate is far more certain at this point. Republicans have secured a Senate majority flipping the upper chamber on the back of flips in Montana Ohio and West Virginia, meaning Republicans will have a minimum of 52 senate seats in January, and likely a much more solid majority. Republicans are currently shown with narrow leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania.
- How Florida was won. I’ve been saying it for two years. 2022 wasn’t an outlier. In Florida, the biggest political story hasn’t been Florida’s red counties becoming redder (though there’s been some of that too) but rather Florida’s largest counties, the blue counties, becoming less blue. In the 2022 midterm elections Duval, Hillsborough, Miami Dade, Osceola and Palm Beach all voted for the entire Republican cabinet. In the case of Palm Beach County for the first time on record. Over the prior two years I’ve tracked the monthly performance in each of these counties and what we’ve seen is steady and strong gains in Republican voter registrations in these counties leading to the record Republican voter registration advantage of over 1 million voters as of Election Day. Florida’s big blue counties voted red again largely telling the state’s story in the process. Donald Trump won Florida by double-digits. The last time a presidential candidate has carried the state by a margin of that since George H.W. Bush in 1988. And like DeSantis, Trump carried Duval, Hillsborough, Miami Dade and Osceola – coming within 1% of carrying Palm Beach County too. And as for Rick Scott, who had previously won three statewide elections by 1% or less – he too carried the state by double digits. Florida is indeed a red state, and the bottom line is that even Florida’s blue counties, by way of voter registration, are no longer blue counties when it comes to voting. Florida has 67 counties – only 6 – not even 10% broke for Kamala Harris and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. And team blue didn’t only have the blues about being blown out at the top of the ticket but also at the bottom of the ticket as team Nikki Fried, who has a proclivity for weed, saw Amendments 3 and 4 fail to achieve the necessary support to pass. A record $150 million spent on Amendment 3 couldn’t buy “big weed” as DeSantis put it – a victory. Likewise, another $150 million spent by abortionists couldn’t buy 60% of the vote to force what would have been essentially limitless abortions in this state. In fact, Florida’s voters remained skeptical when voting on proposed constitutional amendments. Only Amendment 2, the Hunting and Fishing amendment and Amendment 5 the Homestead inflation exception passed. 2022 was the best midterm election for Republicans in Florida in the state’s history... 2024 was the strongest presidential election cycle for Republicans in Florida’s history.