The Rebels, The Establishment & The Return of Trump – Top 3 Takeaways – November 14th, 2024
- The Rebels. Upon taking office nearly eight years ago with a Republican majority in congress, President Trump’s biggest obstacle to legislatively achieving his goals was the GOP establishment. Most specifically, it was the GOP establishment leaders in House Speaker Paul Ryan, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, that slowed his agenda down. Rather than being ready to roll on day 1 of the Trump administration, they were largely unable to come to a consensus on how to legislatively move forward with Trump’s agenda. As a result, meaningful votes on key pieces of Trump’s agenda didn’t begin to take place for months, and even then, the GOP majority’s leaders were unsuccessful in keeping their caucuses together for key votes. It wasn’t until July 28th of 2017 that the vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, finally came up for a Senate vote. But three establishment Republican senators, led by the late John McCain voted against the repeal sinking a key piece of Trump’s first term agenda. It wasn’t until December 19th, 11 months into Trump’s first term that they finally passed Trump’s tax plan, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (and even then, there were 16 establishment Republicans who voted against it). This time around the GOP establishment politicians don’t appear to be the biggest threat to a fast start for Trump’s second administration. Instead, the biggest threat being voiced, had been voiced by those who claim to be the most conservative. In advance of the House Speaker vote, the House Freedom Caucus members who first held up Kevin McCarthy’s speakership in the current congress, and then ousted him by joining with Democrats to do so, had once again been threatening to throw current House Speaker Mike Johnson, the man that they had previously demanded, overboard. These congressional rebels, which have been responsible for occasional dysfunction in the current congress, were told in no uncertain terms by President-elect Trump yesterday that they’re not to be dysfunctional in the next congress. Before meeting at the White House with President Biden yesterday, the former and future president met with House Republicans to tell them that he’s “(with Mike Johnson) all the way”. He also said directly to the house speaker in front of the caucus: “Mike you’re going to have a tremendous year. Tremendous two years”. He then turned to the rest of the room and said: “Get it all done. Unify”. And with that, the dysfunctional rebels fell in line. Mike Johnson was elected House Speaker. The House Republican leadership team behind him was established with minimal drama and it’s on to January to begin Making America Great Again.
- The establishment. While Trump ended the rebel rebellion in the House, he decided not to personally wade into the battle for Senate Majority leader. As Republicans voted to move past Mitch McConnell, much to the joy of just about all Americans regardless of political bend, the choices were between the establishment candidate in John Thune, the semi-establishment candidate in John Cornyn, and the anti-establishment pick in Rick Scott. In the end, the establishment won and John Thune, the best-looking dude, won. Thune had previously made up with Trump and while he was Mitch McConnell’s #2, there are reasons to believe that he’ll be the better of the two. John Thune voted with Trump’s positions on the issues 91.4% of the time in his first term, which was actually over 7% more often than Rick Scott did. So, the establishment pick won in the Senate, but there’s reason to believe that Trump’s agenda will still come out a winner in the senate.
- The return. With a “welcome back” and a handshake, President Biden did what only one other president has ever been in a position to do. Congratulate a former president who won back the White House. Only Benjamin Harrison, the 23rd president of the United States, who defeated Grover Cleveland to become president, had been succeeded by the president that he had originally defeated. The dynamic and the vibe was considerably different than the transition between Obama and Trump eight years ago. It also stands in clear contrast to the lack of a transition meeting four years ago when President Trump was contesting the election. Nevertheless, it was cordial and for Trump supporters it was exciting. It’s been four long years of watching the U.S. decline before our eyes. And seeing Donald Trump back in the White House isn’t just the first official visual of the greatest completed comeback in American history, the contrast between our current, clearly diminished president, and the vigor of the former and future president was evident. But most of all, man was it great to see Trump back at the White House once again. But speaking of being seen... One thing that there might not be as much of in a second Trump term is as many visuals generally. Yesterday the media access to Trump, as he made his way around D.C., was far more limited than what we used to see. It’s clear that the level of Secret Service protection isn’t just what it was when he was last president. It was evident it’s stronger than it had been. With all that’s happened over the past week plus with Donald Trump’s historic reelection, it’s easy to forget the many threats that still exist for Donald Trump – none the least of which is an Iranian assassination plot. One other takeaway from the return. Greater restraint. The president-elect's incoming chief of staff Suzie Wiles was present with him all day. He was disciplined when the press was in proximity. But yes, he still had his sense of humor telling the House Republicans: I suspect I won't be running again unless you do something else, unless you say he's so good we've got to figure something out... Which hilariously triggered the godless, soulless and slanderous news media a la the New Republic’s story: Trump Makes Chilling Joke About Staying in Power Forever. So, what we saw yesterday was perhaps the best version of the former and future president yet. One who was serious, effective and on point, while still being the funniest man in the room. Unless you ask Norah O’Donnell, who was apparently also triggered by Trump... It was a successful return for Trump that provided a preview of what’s to come... Including some in news media having learned nothing from the election. They’ve yet to realize that they’re the joke.